Falcon ute swooped by Holden

[SSbaby]

By MARTON PETTENDY 25 February 2005

FORD’S share of the Aussie ute market it has owned for five years has continued to slide this year, and the local Blue Oval chief says it’s all Territory’s fault.

Holden’s Commodore-based ute outsold Falcon ute on a monthly basis for the first time in two years last October and Holden went on to win the 2004 locally-built ute sales battle 20,813 to 20,123.

Holden’s 26.2 per cent ute market share in 2004, compared with Ford’s Falcon ute share of 25.4 per cent, represented the first time since the VS-versus-XH ute battle in 1998 that Commodore ute outsold Falcon ute for a full year.

Ford president Tom Gorman said in November that losing ute market leadership to Holden was "not the end of the world" but did constitute "a pride point and something we keep an eye on".

However, Ford’s ute market share has continued to spiral in 2005, and Mr Gorman has blamed a production shortage for Falcon ute’s poor showing of just 1113 sales in January – well short of Commodore ute’s 1613 sales the same month.

Commodore ute already holds a commanding 26.5 per cent year-to-date share (up from 26.5 per cent last January), while Falcon ute’s share is down from 26.1 per cent at this time in 2004 to just 20.4 per cent.

Mr Gorman said Ford’s Broadmeadows assembly plant in Victoria ran at between 102 and 104 per cent of capacity in 2004, delivering Territory, Fairlane/LTD and Falcon sedan, wagon and ute models at the rate of 520 vehicles per day or 75 per hour.

Producing more Falcon utes, he said, would have come at the expense of other models.

"I can do anything I want, but it doesn’t come for free. There are trade-offs," he said.

More here...

I don't get it - although granted there could be trade offs - how could Territory be responsible for the lower ute sales given one is a load carrier and restricted seater whereas the other is a family vehicle and not really a load hauler?

Besides, the ute has a turbo & V8 and the Territory has no turbo or V8. Surely this cannot account for the drop of around 500 sales/month?

[RED_EL_XR8]

Originally Posted by SSbaby

I don't get it - although granted there could be trade offs - how could Territory be responsible for the lower ute sales given one is a load carrier and restricted seater whereas the other is a family vehicle and not really a load hauler?

Besides, the ute has a turbo & V8 and the Territory has no turbo or V8. Surely this cannot account for the drop of around 500 sales/month?

If you cant get one in a reasonable time, you look at alternatives, Territorys huge sucess has delayed production other models. Simple really. :

[MR_SIDO]

no, but what he meant was that because Territory was selling so well they had to build alot more Territory's than Falcon utes, resulting in the orders that were taken in December and January for ute were delayed for coming months, I expect a significant rise in ute sales over the next two months.

[SSbaby]

Yes, it's the first thing they say in their defence... "production shortage" but what about adding another shift? Surely profitability wouldn't necessarily go south with the increase in volume... 500 sales/month is 6000 utes a year and that's a very profitable line of vehicles in their own right.

[RED_EL_XR8]

Originally Posted by SSbaby

Yes, it's the first thing they say in their defence... "production shortage" but what about adding another shift? Surely profitability wouldn't necessarily go south with the increase in volume... 500 sales/month is 6000 utes a year and that's a very profitable line of vehicles in their own right.

Another shift is not always possible? Depends on what % of utilisation other elements of the line are at. And there are always cost breakpoints to be met to fully justify extra shifts.

[SSbaby]

Originally Posted by RED_EL_XR8

Another shift is not always possible? Depends on what % of utilisation other elements of the line are at. And there are always cost breakpoints to be met to fully justify extra shifts.

True. I'm just wondering how Holden manage with 3 shifts given they have to cater for 50,000 vehicles in export sales (that's roughly one shift's worth of vehicles/year alone) as well.

PS I really focused more on this statement from big Tom ""As good as we feel about SUV sales, we feel just as bad about ute sales. The challenge for us really is in utes, to refocus our energies on lost ground there," he said. "

[dogbreath_48]

Mr Gorman said Ford’s Broadmeadows assembly plant in Victoria ran at between 102 and 104 per cent of capacity in 2004

104% capacity SHOULD be impossible...so 'adding another shift' could prove difficult. am i wrong?

-Stu

[Hawk]

It also looks to me as though the Crewman has been grabbing some sales (although I don't know if the figures will back that up). I see plenty of them around.

[RED_EL_XR8]

Originally Posted by Hawk

It also looks to me as though the Crewman has been grabbing some sales (although I don't know if the figures will back that up). I see plenty of them around.

I've just seen some fleet discounting matching HiLux leasing figures with crewman, just like what was done to get Combo out there in the market. And we've all seen what a success that was... : : :

[Pilch]

Ford could have a larger profit margin on the Territory in comparison to the ute, therefore more profitable to increase territory production. And even though 102% sounds good, really, its impossible.........100% is the actual roof of production. It's like when your coach says you have to put in 110%.............

[SSbaby]

Originally Posted by dogbreath_48

104% capacity SHOULD be impossible...so 'adding another shift' could prove difficult. am i wrong?

-Stu

Discounting exports to the ME, Holden and Ford production numbers for the Aus & NZ markets would be very lineball. In theory, Holden does with 2 shifts what Ford does with one.

[outback_ute]

Lease figures matching Hilux??? Given the Crewman would have to have significantly higher running costs that only says one thing about the purchase prices…

Shaun, yes that Holden 2004 sales figure includes the normal ute, the one tonner and the Crewman. All for less than 700 more sales than the Falcon which has one basic body style. I can only imagine what the back room boys at Holden would have thought when they saw the AU ute and realised Ford had just blown them out of the water…

[SSbaby]

Originally Posted by outback_ute

[I can only imagine what the back room boys at Holden would have thought when they saw the AU ute and realised Ford had just blown them out of the water…

Don't forget the AU was competing agains the old VS ute for over a year before VU arrived. Besides, the AU ute in XR guise was a hot looker and a better, more practical ute than its competitor at the time.

Even with one ute to counter Holden's multitude ute variations, the Ford was outselling the Holden ute easily until Crewman and tonner rocked up and slowly gave Holden a small sales lead.

I don't believe the context of the article... I reckon the Ford ute is losing market share to it's rival and the gap appears to be widening. I don't think that Ford would want to relinquish that lead very easily, production overcapacity, notwithstanding.

[SSbaby]

The smart money would suggest Ford drop the Falcon wagon to ease the overcapacity problem... the Territory can't be blamed for all of Ford's Falcon derived sales tumbles.

[RED_EL_XR8]

Originally Posted by SSbaby

The smart money would suggest Ford drop the Falcon wagon to ease the overcapacity problem... the Territory can't be blamed for all of Ford's Falcon derived sales tumbles.

Now take this hypathetical Manufacturer "A" Has larger production and can produce many more vehicles, its produces a lot of variants some of which are not well accepted by the marketplace. Its profitability per vehicle is less than manufacturer "B".

Manufacturer "B" has a much lesser range of model variants and a lesser production capability. Manufacturer "B" has to delay delivery of some of its model variants to maintain production of its biggest sellers this does cost "B" some sales, however what production capacity it has is running to its maximum and all its model varients are being represented well in monthly sales figures?

Q: which manufacturer do you think would find it prudent to drop some models from its line-up and why? And Why?

[SSbaby]

Originally Posted by RED_EL_XR8

Now take this hypathetical Manufacturer "A" Has larger production and can produce many more vehicles, its produces a lot of variants some of which are not well accepted by the marketplace. Its profitability per vehicle is less than manufacturer "B".

Manufacturer "B" has a much lesser range of model variants and a lesser production capability. Manufacturer "B" has to delay delivery of some of its model variants to maintain production of its biggest sellers this does cost "B" some sales, however what production capacity it has is running to its maximum and all its model varients are being represented well in monthly sales figures?

Q: which manufacturer do you think would find it prudent to drop some models from its line-up and why? And Why?

But... Manufacturer B has its sights set on exports to the ME... see I do have some business acumen! ;)

[RED_EL_XR8]

Originally Posted by SSbaby

But... Manufacturer B has its sights set on exports to the ME... see I do have some business acumen! ;)

So manufacturer "B" would

a) plan in increased production that maintains profitability, evin if it cost small numbers of short term sales.

b) sacrifice existing markets for lower margin returns on exports but immediate sales

c) Drop it standards, and sell cosmetically enhanced variants of last years model, pour all R&D investment into production costs, discount its models, and market same with a killer AC/DC advertising campaign.

[SSbaby]

Originally Posted by RED_EL_XR8

So manufacturer "B" would

a) plan in increased production that maintains profitability, evin if it cost small numbers of short term sales.

b) sacrifice existing markets for lower margin returns on exports but immediate sales

c) Drop it standards, and sell cosmetically enhanced variants of last years model, pour all R&D investment into production costs, discount its models, and market same with a killer AC/DC advertising campaign.

Or some people could be taking the article at face value... don't forget, the wagon is a relatively poor selling vehicle and Ford is commiting to it long term. If the Territory and utes are where the profit margins are, then logic would dictate that is where Ford must keep focus. No ho hum advertising expense necessary over and above present levels.

Having said that, I am a technical person moreso than someone who's good at managing his finances... I let the other half take care of that side...

I believe Holden move around 500-600 4x2 and about 60-80 4x4 Crewmans. Although only the 4x2 version is counted in the monthly total for Commodore ute.

[RED_EL_XR8]

Originally Posted by SSbaby

If the Territory and utes are where the profit margins are, then logic would dictate that is where Ford must keep focus. No ho hum advertising expense necessary over and above present levels...

No Focus is a 4 Cylinder! : Which sadly isn't selling as well as it should.. Good car in need of some ponies at the asking price.

[Smoke Pursuit]

Ford should just start building more... they should by now be in a financial position where they can outlay more expenses and increase the number of vehicles they roll out each day....

Ofcourse Holden is going to sell more utes, they now have the following lineup:

1. VZ Commodore Ute Style Side
2. VZ Commodore Ute Tray Back
3. VZ Commodore SV6 Style Side
4. VZ Commodore SV6 Tray Back
5. VZ Commodore SS Style Side
6. VZ Crewman Ute Style Side
7. VZ Crewman Ute Tray Back
8. VZ Crewman S Style Side
9. VZ Crewman S Tray Back
10. VZ Crewman SS Style Side
11. VZ Crewman SS Tray Back.
12. VZ Crewman Cross 6
13. VZ Crewman Cross 8

Compared to:
1. BA Falcon XL Tray Back
2. BA Falcon XL Style Side
3. BA Falcon XLS Tray Back.
4. BA Falcon XLS Style Side.
5. BA Falcon RTV Tray Back.
6. BA Falcon RTV Style Side.
7. XR6 NA
8. XR6 Turbo
9. XR8

In reality the Crewman sales are going to be atleast 400 a month considering how much of a market there is for these kind of vehicles, so if Ford built a Falcon ute with the capability of 5 seats and a Space cab option (4 seats) then I reckon they would gain back the ground they have lost.

[RED_EL_XR8]

Originally Posted by ShockWaveXR6na

Ford should just start building more... they should by now be in a financial position where they can outlay more expenses and increase the number of vehicles they roll out each day....

Ofcourse Holden is going to sell more utes, they now have the following lineup:

1. VZ Commodore Ute Style Side
2. VZ Commodore Ute Tray Back
3. VZ Commodore SV6 Style Side
4. VZ Commodore SV6 Tray Back
5. VZ Commodore SS Style Side
6. VZ Crewman Ute Style Side
7. VZ Crewman Ute Tray Back
8. VZ Crewman S Style Side
9. VZ Crewman S Tray Back
10. VZ Crewman SS Style Side
11. VZ Crewman SS Tray Back.
12. VZ Crewman Cross 6
13. VZ Crewman Cross 8

Compared to:
1. BA Falcon XL Tray Back
2. BA Falcon XL Style Side
3. BA Falcon XLS Tray Back.
4. BA Falcon XLS Style Side.
5. BA Falcon RTV Tray Back.
6. BA Falcon RTV Style Side.
7. XR6 NA
8. XR6 Turbo
9. XR8

In reality the Crewman sales are going to be atleast 400 a month considering how much of a market there is for these kind of vehicles, so if Ford built a Falcon ute with the capability of 5 seats and a Space cab option (4 seats) then I reckon they would gain back the ground they have lost.

What market? Tradies with midget children? Who have a spare runway to park on and never need to use underground staion or loading dock entries?

Why in hell would you build a crewman when you already have a crew cab rodeo in your range that has better load capability and room for rear occupants? Defies belief?

[outback_ute]

Originally Posted by SSbaby

Don't forget the AU was competing agains the old VS ute for over a year before VU arrived. Besides, the AU ute in XR guise was a hot looker and a better, more practical ute than its competitor at the time.

I didn't forget that - I was meaning when the AU ute arrived Holden would have already had its plans for a VT ute locked in place and seen it instantly rendered old hat. Hence why they went out and had HSV engineer the one tonner. That did give them an opening to leapfrog Ford by picking up the idea from the R5 to do Crewman, and also incorporate the Adventra awd system for Cross8 (now also Cross6 & one tonner Cross6). PS it is still a better, more practical ute than it's competitor! :

[SSbaby]

Originally Posted by outback_ute

PS it is still a better, more practical ute than it's competitor! :

Look at the scoreboard! :sm_headba
Look at the scoreboard! :sm_headba
Look at the scoreboard! :sm_headba
:hihi:

[outback_ute]

What, the one that says Ford has made more money selling utes? :gren: :

The Holden ute definately has more choice available now and I see crewmans quite abit. But on the same token if Ford were to release a dual cab Falcon, the sales results will swing in Fords favour again. (take that SSbaby!) :hihi:

[RED_EL_XR8]

Originally Posted by RATT

The Holden ute definately has more choice available now and I see crewmans quite abit. But on the same token if Ford were to release a dual cab Falcon, the sales results will swing in Fords favour again. (take that SSbaby!) :hihi:

Lets hope they get time to make RTVs soon...

[SSbaby]

Originally Posted by RED_EL_XR8

Why in hell would you build a crewman when you already have a crew cab rodeo in your range that has better load capability and room for rear occupants? Defies belief?

Ah-ha how the tables have turned in this topic. It's all about profits! Holden made the correct call on Crewman just as Ford did with Territory. Crewman is a sales success, even surpassing Holden's initial sales forecasts. 500-600/month is quite lucrative given that they had the Statesman platform to draw upon plus the existing tooling for the utes. Cheap investment in relative development and production terms.

PS Rodeo is also selling up a storm... there's no cannibolisation there although you'd think there would be. Not like the situation with Territory on sales of Falcon sedan, wagon, ute... out:

PS I thoroughly enjoyed this discussion but ... time to go! Have a good w/end everybody.

[Smoke Pursuit]

Plus Rodeos are pieces of shit to drive for more then 2 hour lengths of time... Id have a Crewman Cross 6 or Cross 8 anyday if I lived in the bush or I was a tradie. They have got a bit of a market here for these cars, most tradies want V8 utes that they can also run the family around in during the weekends, and you really couldn't blame them.

[RED_EL_XR8]

Originally Posted by ShockWaveXR6na

Plus Rodeos are pieces of shit to drive for more then 2 hour lengths of time... Id have a Crewman Cross 6 or Cross 8 anyday if I lived in the bush or I was a tradie. They have got a bit of a market here for these cars, most tradies want V8 utes that they can also run the family around in during the weekends, and you really couldn't blame them.

Rodeo are about as comfortable as 2 HQ's but they are a good tough work truck. Sedans are for taking the wife and kids out.