Covid 19 -

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by cheap

Just don't tell the pro-vax people!

More and more countries are containing C19 with readily available treatments which are basically free - Big-Pharma, WHO, Fauci and Gates will be panic mode.

Vitamin D was mentioned as something that could help very early on. Does it only help with people who are deficient? Does someone who already obtains sufficient vitamin D gain any benefit from taking more? Deficiencies in a lot of vitamins or minerals makes you more susceptible to infections, so is this any different? Clinical trials needed.

Don't go overboard though. There is such a thing as vitamin D toxicity. Also its not a cure nor a vaccine. Its one thing to ensure your body is functioning properly to best fight infections and diseases. Its another thing to generate antibodies.

[FPV8U]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

Vitamin D was mentioned as something that could help very early on. Does it only help with people who are deficient? Does someone who already obtains sufficient vitamin D gain any benefit from taking more? Deficiencies in a lot of vitamins or minerals makes you more susceptible to infections, so is this any different? Clinical trials needed.

Don't go overboard though. There is such a thing as vitamin D toxicity. Also its not a cure nor a vaccine. Its one thing to ensure your body is functioning properly to best fight infections and diseases. Its another thing to generate antibodies.

I’ve been taking 4,000IU a day since around April this year along with a vitamin C supplement, I can’t remember exactly which episode but he covers blood levels to target for what appears to be benefit, you would then need to get your blood levels checked and re assess.

While clinical trials would help provide definitive answers, much like other treatments that have been discussed at length, there’s literally no downside here to the general population being proactive, especially those most vulnerable in the community.

[Romulus]

Originally Posted by FPV8U

I’ve been taking 4,000IU a day since around April this year along with a vitamin C supplement, I can’t remember exactly which episode but he covers blood levels to target for what appears to be benefit, you would then need to get your blood levels checked and re assess.

While clinical trials would help provide definitive answers, much like other treatments that have been discussed at length, there’s literally no downside here to the general population being proactive, especially those most vulnerable in the community.

Yep, plenty research coming out about the benefits of both Vitamins. I take a heap more than that but everyone must DYOR and I have blood tests done to confirm the levels are safe.

Interestingly enough stats from Dr Sutton say 40% of the population has a co-morbidity. That's an indictment on the health system in general and one could argue the governments idea of health is not in fact health but sickness.

I've not heard any suggestions from the government to improve ones health and immune system during this outbreak.

[CoupeKing]

Summer. Watch the old-timers drop like flies wearing a mask.

[Citroënbender]

The ABC has undertaken a mid-pandemic reinvention of their news front page; as always less is more - less “content at a glance” and more trying to second-guess your news reading interests.

You certainly feel it’s a format that could be more easily manipulated to “feel” comprehensive whilst cynically filtering. They were stupid enough to invite viewer commentary on it’s form…

[PG2]

Originally Posted by CoupeKing

Summer. Watch the old-timers drop like flies wearing a mask.

Do you think that sort of **** is funny?

On that note, thread closed again. If none of you want start posting something reasonable in here I'll keep closing the thread and Russ can keep coming along the next morning deleting all of your diatribe.

[russellw]

I will reopen it for now but let me make two things crystal clear.

Statements of an overtly political nature will be removed and repeat offenders will lose access to this sub-forum.

Statements that I consider to be trolling will meet the same fate.

[russellw]

52 new cases for Australia and 8 deaths sees the CMR rise to 2.92% while active drop to 2,880. NSW recorded 9 cases; Queensland & WA 1 each with the balance in Victoria. The Victorian 14 day moving average is now 90.3.

6 new cases and zero deaths for NZ so CMR is 1.347% and active cases rise to 123.

The UK had 2,460 new cases yesterday and as we know they are now not counting their mortalities by the WHO guidelines we are going to ignore those figures.

Just over 24k new cases in the USA yesterday and 286 deaths sees CMR drop to 2.984% and active cases drop to 39.1% with the raw numbers dropping again. Note that the USA is actually minus one day due to time differences.

Other notable points:
Global deaths pass 900k, with the last 50k taking 9 days;
India completes 50M tests;
Argentina passes 500k cases;
Asia records a new daily high of 118.301 for new cases;

Israel (3,590), Spain (8,964) and Argentina (12,027) all recorded new daily highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

[DaveD]

Pineapple on a pizza is just plain wrong!

[Tassie f100]

Originally Posted by DaveD

Pineapple on a pizza is just plain wrong!

You may be right,but I am also sure that whatever you put on a pizza is also wrong

[russellw]

Given that the Victorian easing of restrictions is linked to the 14 day rolling average for new cases, here is a chart depicting the current movement in those numbers.

Note that the guidelines for the next Stage in the road map are based on 'metro' and ' regional' having different targets but I don't have a readily available data set to split between the two so these are the State based averages and thus show a worse result than metro would in isolation. The target is 30-50 new cases on a rolling 14D average.

The move to the 3rd stage (> 26 October and < 5 cases Statewide) is back to whole of State numbers as is the 4th stage (0 cases for >=14D).



I'll add that graph to each of the daily stats.

[FoxtrotGolfXray 5.0]

Originally Posted by russellw

Note that the guidelines for the next Stage in the road map are based on 'metro' and ' regional' having different targets but I don't have a readily available data set to split between the two so these are the State based averages and thus show a worse result than metro would in isolation. The target is 30-50 new cases on a rolling 14D average.

This link provides the split in stats for the metro and regional zones.

https://covidlive.com.au/vic

May be of some interest to those who are keen to see how we are tracking towards the next steps in the reopening roadmap.

[rods falcon]

Thanks for the link foxtrot, very informative

[falcon_bandit]

Dementia patient in a qld aged care facility, got tested for the virus, & while everyone waiting for the results, he is allowed to walk around the large building & interact with all the other residents & staff. I thought u had to be isolated until results come back?

[russellw]

Here is a bit of a look at how some of the European countries have fared since the start of the pandemic. In alphabetical order:

Albania: while the case numbers are low at about 5 per 100k of population, they are in the grip of a second wave that has steadily grown since early June and might only just be abating although the trend-line doesn't show that.



Austria: also running around 5 cases / 100k, they had a big dip between April and early June after an early (steep) peak but have been climbing steadily since and while the numbers aren't as bad as the early peak this second wave keeps setting new benchmarks for case numbers.



Bulgaria: a bit lower for case numbers with 2-3 per 100k they have been pretty much climbing apart from a small respite in late May although the last few weeks has seen a reduction of sorts.



Denmark: A bit over 4 cases / 100k, they are also on the climb again after a lengthy period in decline although they haven't reached the levels of the first wave (yet).



Greece: Despite being mostly well below 1 case / 100k; the second wave, like Australia, has proven much worse than the first with the highest numbers recorded in late August. It has softened a bit this last week or so but time will tell if that is a real or temporary gain.



Hungary: now running around 5 cases / 100k this was a pretty graph as they had consistently low daily case numbers until late August when the second wave hit with a vengeance and their highest daily number was only a couple of days ago.



Portugal: now running around 3-4 cases / 100k they got hit hard with an early peak but haven't really made continuous gains since with the recent overall trend being upwards.



Romania: now running between 5-7 cases / 100k this has been heading the wrong way since early June and although the numbers are a bit peaky (thanks to reporting I suspect) the overall trend is rising.



Serbia: now running below 1 case / 100k this is what I'd expect most countries to look like with an early first wave followed by a period of decline; a second wave wave of 4-6 weeks and then a steady decline as that is got under control.

[cs123]

Originally Posted by russellw

Here is a bit of a look at how some of the European countries have fared since the start of the pandemic. In alphabetical order:

Albania: while the case numbers are low at about 5 per 100k of population, they are in the grip of a second wave that has steadily grown since early June and might only just be abating although the trend-line doesn't show that.

Austria: also running around 5 cases / 100k, they had a big dip between April and early June after an early (steep) peak but have been climbing steadily since and while the numbers aren't as bad as the early peak this second wave keeps setting new benchmarks for case numbers.

Bulgaria: a bit lower for case numbers with 2-3 per 100k they have been pretty much climbing apart from a small respite in late May although the last few weeks has seen a reduction of sorts.

Denmark: A bit over 4 cases / 100k, they are also on the climb again after a lengthy period in decline although they haven't reached the levels of the first wave (yet).

Greece: Despite being mostly well below 1 case / 100k; the second wave, like Australia, has proven much worse than the first with the highest numbers recorded in late August. It has softened a bit this last week or so but time will tell if that is a real or temporary gain.

Hungary: now running around 5 cases / 100k this was a pretty graph as they had consistently low daily case numbers until late August when the second wave hit with a vengeance and their highest daily number was only a couple of days ago.

Portugal: now running around 3-4 cases / 100k they got hit hard with an early peak but haven't really made continuous gains since with the recent overall trend being upwards.

Romania[/B]: now running between 5-7 cases / 100k this has been heading the wrong way since early June and although the numbers are a bit peaky (thanks to reporting I suspect) the overall trend is rising.

Serbia: now running below 1 case / 100k this is what I'd expect most countries to look like with an early first wave followed by a period of decline; a second wave wave of 4-6 weeks and then a steady decline as that is got under control.

Do you have any analysis on what those countries did when the second wave hit? ie what has been effective

[russellw]

Albania went into heavy lockdown during March and maintained it until late April when restrictions were gradually eased and pretty much fully removed by June 1st, which, as the data shows, was too much relaxation too early and I don't think they have reintroduced them either. I'd call that a fail.

Austria also went into lockdown (with curfew) from March until early June but then opened most of the borders and ran a massive tourism campaign for the neighbouring countries. They did reintroduce mandatory masks from early July and still have some restrictions in place which is probably why the second wave hasn't been too severe.

Bulgaria had a solid early response but removed most restrictions in June and have been paying for it ever since.

Denmark did much better than the neighbouring countries in the early stages but they too have been removing restrictions since July and only reintroduced some in mid August.

Greece also responded well initially but had zero restrictions by late July, including International travel. They are busy blaming the citizens for not following guidelines while the numbers escalate out of control. Another FAIL.

Hungary exercised the emergency powers to lockdown the country early in April but then the parliament voted to remove those emergency powers in early June which didn't seem to hurt them so it's hard to see where the recent spike came from.

Portugal went into lockdown early but started easing restrictions as early as April 30th and had completely removed them by late June abut has subsequently reintroduced some of them.

Pretty much the same story for Romania except they haven't reintroduced any of the countermeasures.

Serbia had an early lockdown and then relaxed it in early June after a change of Government but reintroduced most of the lockdown measures in late July.

[FairmontGS]

How's Slovenia fairing Russ? They impressed me as a go-ahead, very healthy, common-sense country from my visit last year.

Croatia as well would be good.

Thanks in advance.

[roKWiz]

Originally Posted by FairmontGS

How's Slovenia fairing Russ? They impressed me as a go-ahead, very healthy, common-sense country from my visit last year.
.

Don't know about the pandemic but doing pretty good at this years Tour de France so far.

[PhilT2]

Trials of the Oxford University/Astrazeneca vaccine (AZD 1222) have been halted because one of the volunteers became ill with transverse myelitis. This is a rare disease the cause of which is not fully known. There is no information yet on how long ago the volunteer received the vaccine.
https://www.webmd.com/multiple-scler...myelitis-facts

[T3rminator]

2nd wave coming in the UK. It is trending the same fashion as the 1st wave.
Group gatherings now limited to 6 people, but no "heavy" restrictions yet. How long do they wait until they pull the trigger....if at all?

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/202...-picking-pace/

"On Sunday, after it was announced the UK had seen nearly 3,000 new coronavirus infections, Health Secretary Matt Hancock warned young people not to "infect their grandparents".
The cases are predominantly among younger people, but we've seen in other countries across the world and in Europe, this sort of rise in the cases amongst younger people leading to a rise across the population as a whole,” said Mr Hancock."

On the flip side...

"On the other hand, Dr Neil Stone, an infectious disease specialist at University College Hospital in London, said: "I don't believe the Covid-19 epidemic in the UK, US and elsewhere has 'shifted' to younger, healthier people. They just weren't being tested before."

It will be interesting to see what the death rate is this time around. Or what the effects are on younger people.

[Mr_G6ET]

Fines issued:
I cant believe/understand the amount of 'people' that avoid isolation, have party, etc. The Vic state is on the rundown but any few of these could cause the extension and harm to so many including economics.
Sure, there is likely a better way to manage this but the people are simply not smart enough to take the health of the nation into their hands.
Too many rednecks

[GasoLane]

Originally Posted by PhilT2

Trials of the Oxford University/Astrazeneca vaccine (AZD 1222) have been halted because one of the volunteers became ill with transverse myelitis. This is a rare disease the cause of which is not fully known. There is no information yet on how long ago the volunteer received the vaccine.
https://www.webmd.com/multiple-scler...myelitis-facts

From the article....

• AstraZeneca says reports its CEO confirmed a case of transverse myelitis in a COVID-19 vaccine trial participant are "incorrect"
• The company said the was "no final diagnosis" and the independent safety committee was conducting its review
• In July, the panel found a case of multiple sclerosis in a participant was unrelated to the vaccine

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-...nosis/12648248

[russellw]

91 new cases for Australia and 11 deaths sees the CMR rise to 2.951% while active drop to 2,821. NSW recorded 9 cases; Queensland recorded 8, with the balance in Victoria. The Victorian State 14 day moving average is now 83.71.

6 new cases and zero deaths for NZ so CMR is 1.342% and active cases rise to 125.

The UK had 2,659 new cases yesterday as the 2nd wave continues to spiral out of control. We know they are now not counting their mortalities by the WHO guidelines so we are going to ignore those figures.

Just over 29k new cases in the USA yesterday and 496 deaths sees CMR drop to 2.979% and active cases drop to 38.7% with the raw numbers still dropping. Note that the USA is actually minus one day due to time differences.

Other notable points:
Global cases pass 28M, with the last 1M taking 4 days;
The USA completes 89M, India 51M, Russia 39M, Colombia 3M & Serbia 1M tests;
Asia passes 8M cases;
South America goes over 50 deaths per 100k of population, the highest of the continents;
Europe records a new daily high of 40.421 for new cases - the 36,808 the day before was also a new record;
Asia records a new daily high of 124.480 for new cases;

Tunisia (293), Czechia (1,159), Costa Rica (1,327), Argentina (12,259) and India (95.529) all recorded new daily highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

[FTE217]

Curfew alone is raking in $162,000 a night in fines.

From about 8.30pm at night there's a regular stream of light planes and helicopters patrolling the metro area......

Revenue never ceases.

[Mr_G6ET]

Originally Posted by FTE217

... From about 8.30pm at night there's a regular stream of light planes and helicopters patrolling the metro area...... Revenue never ceases.

It must be a 'strange' hearing that each day enforcing the lockdown.

I wonder how many of those fines will be actualised.

[prydey]

Originally Posted by Mr_G6ET

I wonder how many of those fines will be actualised.

I understand the govt have ways of making sure fines get paid, like putting a block on your licence, registration etc preventing you from renewing until you pay up, however there are also ways the person paying the fine can make sure the govt don't see any money for a long time. Payment plan @ $1/week, or month...

[Mr_G6ET]

Originally Posted by prydey

I understand the govt have ways of making sure fines get paid, like putting a block on your licence, registration etc preventing you from renewing until you pay up, however there are also ways the person paying the fine can make sure the govt don't see any money for a long time. Payment plan @ $1/week, or month...

I agree, disruption, hassle etc but also how many will challenge the legality ?
Court costs v payback

[russellw]

Yesterday we looked at a number of European countries individually to see how they had been coping with the pandemic. Today, we are going to look at a selection of Asian countries and look at their raw case numbers and trends. Please note that the trends are all 5th Order polynomials because of the length of time the data covers. It's not ideal for some and where an alternate index has been used it is noted below.

Armenia: this is a bit of an unusual graph as it seems to suggest that they have only had a single wave that was slow developing, had a 2 month peak and has gradually (albeit inconsistently) reduced from early August. This is one of the graphs that is only 4th polynomial in the trend line and could equally have been 3rd.



Azerbaijan: this is a fairly normal shaped trend with a fairly extended first wave that took 3 months to peak followed by a 7 week fall in case numbers and then a 2nd wave over the last month which is still growing slowly.



Bahrain: this is a fairly normal shaped trend with two clearly defined waves although in this instance they really didn't get the level of reduction between them that some other countries have managed as can be seen from the fairly shallow dip in the trend line. The second wave is also just starting to be worse then the first one and whether the upward trend of the last few days continues may determine how bad it gets.



Bangladesh: this looks like they are only just coming out of the first wave and not particularly fast either. This is a 4th order polynomial.



Indonesia: this graph looks like they are only still in the midst of the first wave and the highest point was only a week ago. This is a 3rd order polynomial.



Iran: this data set is just inconsistent. They appear to have had a couple of peaks in March and June and it is trending upward again now.



Iraq: despite a later start than most with no real case numbers until the latter part of May, the numbers have continued to climb since then with the highest only 6 days ago and even yesterday barely less than that peak.



Israel: after a small early cluster, they seemed to have it under control through May and the first half of June but since then the overall trend has been upward and they recorded their highest number of cases to date, yesterday.



Japan: similar to Israel they had a small early cluster; a period of low case numbers across May and June but then they had a second wave that peaked in early August but have pretty much trended down since.



Kazakhstan: they had very low cases numbers all the way through until the end of June but then it took off with a vengeance over the following 4 weeks but they clearly got a grip on it since and case numbers have declined rapidly since that point. This is a 4th order polynomial.



Kuwait: this is another country that still looks to be their first wave and apart from a couple of weeks in June where it improved slightly the current case numbers aren't far off the peak. This is a 4th order polynomial.



Lebanon: despite a long period where it seemed to be reasonably well contained all the way through to mid-July, they have been on a steady upward climb since then.



Nepal: they look to be in the midst of a second wave after getting the first one under control in late July but the trend since has been upward and their peak thus far was only 6 days ago.



Oman: they didn't reach the peak of their first wave until mid July but they got the case numbers down very quickly from there and only the last three weeks have started to show a slight upward trend.



Pakistan: they had a long climb to their mid-June peak but the overall trend since then has been downward and even the slight kick in the trend line this last week is minor.



Philippines: they also had negligible case numbers until the latter part of May and it looks like they had a small first wave through to the end of July but instead of dropping, a second larger wave started almost immediately and has only started to decline these last three weeks or so.



Qatar: they had a fairly steep rise to a peak in early June but case numbers have been steadily dropping since about mid June although there is a slight upward trend this last two weeks or so.



Saudi Arabia: they also had a fairly steep rise to a peak in mid June but case numbers have been steadily dropping since about early July apart from a spike in mid August.



Singapore: they have had fairly inconsistent case numbers but the overall trend recently has been downward.



South Korea: after an early wave back in March they seemed to have kept it under control all the way to late July before it started to trend upwards but at levels below the early peak. Thy had another large spike (their biggest) in late August but it seems to have calmed down now.




Turkew: they also had an early peak in April which was under control all the way to August before it started to trend upwards but only slowly so it's hard to tell where they are really at.




UAE: a clear example of two distinct waves although the fall between them didn't exactly inspire confidence that they were on top of it and they are still currently in the second wave with a peak almost as high as the first.



Uzbekistan: the final graph shows a relatively benign first wave followed by a much more severe second wave that peaked in mid August before the numbers trended downward again..

[Mr_G6ET]

Originally Posted by russellw

Yesterday we looked at a number of European countries

Query, when the chart shows significant spikes, others smooth, I assume that is adhering reporting frequency ?
Some are smooth, cant imagine people in the next country die at differing rates.

What is after second wave ? a different approach or lock down the 'globe' again ?