Covid 19 -

[Jack91]

Had to make a last minute run into Melbourne today for a site measure and noticed the roadblock on the westbound side of the freeway (leaving Melbourne). Nothing on the way in.
3 hours later expected to get asked what i was doing but they were waving most people past it.
So what's the bloody point of it then? Not that it matters anyway, any basic bitch can just go straight through anyway apparently

[MITCHAY]

So it looks like the next stimulus is tax cuts, which is **** all.

Massive unemployment and that's the solution.

The RBA has been saying for a long time we need to put in a huge amount in public investment We're ****ed, no real plan for anything

[Fed]

I see they have changed the target from suppression to zero community transmission.

To me that's elimination and about time.
https://www.news.com.au/finance/work...bd42574771cec7

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by Fed

I see they have changed the target from suppression to zero community transmission.

To me that's elimination and about time.
https://www.news.com.au/finance/work...bd42574771cec7

Sounds like that is saying we want to get to a stage where we only have cases in the quarantined areas?

Re: stage 4 restrictions, I thought Prof Sutton put it extremely well. Covid is a health risk, but unemployment is also a health risk, not being able to make mortgage repayment is a health risk, bankruptcy is a health risk. Worrying some sections of the media are really pushing for a stage 4 in Vic.

[five 7]

It took pretty much the whole nation being on board in NZ, plus a draconian lockdown, basically stay home for a month no mix or mingle at all, if you had to go out for food you kept well away from anyone, even doing that it was dam hard to stamp it out. Your Geni is out the bottle and sprinting down the street you guys will join the world with rising infection. Was our way better who knows, problem we have now is we are stuck on a island, and slowly sinking economically, the Govt hand outs are coming to a end so more and more people are getting laid off (son was laid off last week Covid was used as reason) driving around theres lots of for lease signs in shops. Have not heard one economic plan from Govt to how they are going to drag us out of this, but we (govt) are going to create jobs (planting trees and some road construction). We had industry leaders offering help with advice but fell on deaf ears with aunty Cindy. Good thing is NZ govt is leading by example they said were going to take a 20% pay cut which seems to be a impossible task to implement with a election soon i cant see that back dated. All i can can see is a tough Christmas looming. Sorry for doom and gloom rant but it seems both our Govt's are a bit lost with this.

[buggerlugs]

Originally Posted by five 7

It took pretty much the whole nation being on board in NZ, plus a draconian lockdown, basically stay home for a month no mix or mingle at all, if you had to go out for food you kept well away from anyone, even doing that it was dam hard to stamp it out. Your Geni is out the bottle and sprinting down the street you guys will join the world with rising infection. Was our way better who knows, problem we have now is we are stuck on a island, and slowly sinking economically, the Govt hand outs are coming to a end so more and more people are getting laid off (son was laid off last week Covid was used as reason) driving around theres lots of for lease signs in shops. Have not heard one economic plan from Govt to how they are going to drag us out of this, but we (govt) are going to create jobs (planting trees and some road construction). We had industry leaders offering help with advice but fell on deaf ears with aunty Cindy. Good thing is NZ govt is leading by example they said were going to take a 20% pay cut which seems to be a impossible task to implement with a election soon i cant see that back dated. All i can can see is a tough Christmas looming. Sorry for doom and gloom rant but it seems both our Govt's are a bit lost with this.

I'd say most Governments are lost with this. Trump has buried his head in the sand "It'll be over in 3 weeks" Now that there is an election coming, all of a sudden he has taken an interest in it...............
Just like most politicians............

[russellw]

Originally Posted by prydey

my observations are the opposite. There seems to be a focus on US numbers rather than the UK or euro countries.

The UK is over 3 times worse than the US as far as case mortality rate is concerned. Of course this is influenced by the number of positive tests.

The US is a similar size to ALL of Europe, by population. Its hardly a fair comparison to compare the US numbers to individual European countries.

Also remember that the case numbers didn't start exploding in the US until after europe were well in to the thick of it which is why Italy and spain etc had a lot of focus a few months ago, and now the US does.

There is a bit of a disparity. Europe has 159M more people than North America but has had considerably less cases (2.7M v 4.8M) and although they are almost level for deaths at ~200k, the US CMR of 4.17% is lower than the 7.33% of Europe.

Where the US numbers look bad is the 841 (compared to 370) cases per 100k of population and more importantly the 35 (v 27) deaths per 100k of population.

[five 7]

Rocket Lab here in NZ is proof a bit of can do lateral thinking can work, just think outside the box, Aussie and NZ have some clever people in manufacturing, we need to add value here not export raw materials.

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by five 7

Rocket Lab here in NZ is proof a bit of can do lateral thinking can work, just think outside the box, Aussie and NZ have some clever people in manufacturing, we need to add value here not export raw materials.

Bring back local Ford and Holden. Provide 0% loans on new cars for 7 years. BAM. Make me minister for jobs.

Actually thats what they did in Malaysia on their local Proton make. Seemed to keep their heads above water at the time, not sure what the long term impacts will be.

[Fed]

problem we have now is we are stuck on a island, and slowly sinking economically

You're not alone in fact you're probably doing better than Countries where covid is running amok.
You still exporting?

[five 7]

Originally Posted by Fed

You're not alone in fact you're probably doing better than Countries where covid is running amok.
You still exporting?

Yes things are exporting, things like meat dairy and logs are leaving then we probably buy it back after its processed. It's all smoke and mirrors with our economy at the mo, our best import needs to be from Hong Kong its high skill knowledge based people.We need go getting entrepreneurs.

[smoo]

Originally Posted by five 7

Yes things are exporting, things like meat dairy and logs are leaving then we probably buy it back after its processed. It's all smoke and mirrors with our economy at the mo, our best import needs to be from Hong Kong its high skill knowledge based people.We need go getting entrepreneurs.

Not a chance with this socialist. But we will up the refugee quota no dramas.
Stand by for a brain/skills drain to Oz once the borders open up and this thing is re elected.

https://www.insider.com/new-zealand-...er-rich-2020-4

[gooseneck]

Originally Posted by smoo

Not a chance with this socialist. But we will up the refugee quota no dramas.
Stand by for a brain/skills drain to Oz once the borders open up and this thing is re elected.

https://www.insider.com/new-zealand-...er-rich-2020-4

It was actually very smart to denounce that, could you imagine just how much power and influence 2,000 millionaires would have on politics in NZ?

Almost like inviting 2,000 Alex Jones'ez to come and play havoc with your countrys political system.

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by gooseneck

It was actually very smart to denounce that, could you imagine just how much power and influence 2,000 millionaires would have on politics in NZ?

Almost like inviting 2,000 Alex Jones'ez to come and play havoc with your countrys political system.

You don't need a visa to influence politics. Just run a media company.

Alex Jones wouldn't have made the proposed NZ cut off, but he could have made the AU cut off $50m is a rather large threshold!

So $$$ isn't driving NZ voters?....hmmm....what's the rule for migrating there? Just asking for a friend.

[CoupeKing]

Originally Posted by gooseneck

It was actually very smart to denounce that, could you imagine just how much power and influence 2,000 millionaires would have on politics in NZ?

Almost like inviting 2,000 Alex Jones'ez to come and play havoc with your countrys political system.

[cheap]

Originally Posted by gooseneck

It was actually very smart to denounce that, could you imagine just how much power and influence 2,000 millionaires would have on politics in NZ?

Almost like inviting 2,000 Alex Jones'ez to come and play havoc with your countrys political system.

Policy of envy?

Jacinda does not want any independently wealthy people.
They can’t be manipulated and golly gosh they might speak their minds.
2,000 scary people, and the “Woke” hit the panic button. Best not invite them in. But 1,500 refugees p.a. they’re fine.

[russellw]

A much lower 293 new cases for Australia but 6 deaths sees the CMR rises to 1.002% and active cases rise to 4,681. NSW recorded 7 and the balance were in Victoria except for 2 in Queensland.

1 new case and no deaths for NZ so CMR is 1.414% and active cases drop to 21.

The UK recorded 768 new cases and 123 deaths yesterday so the CMR rises to 15.332%.

Just over 69k new cases in the USA yesterday and 1,166 deaths sees CMR down to 3.533% and active cases at 49.0% with the raw numbers still rising. Note that the USA is actually minus one day due to time differences.

Other notable points:
The UK completes 14M and the USA 52M tests;
Africa sets a new high for daily cases with 20,765;
Asia sets a new high for daily cases with 76,144;

El Salvador (415), Venezuela (449), Morocco (570), Algeria (675), Mexico (8,438), South Africa (13,944) and India (48,892) all recorded new daily highs, those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

[Franco Cozzo]

500 cases active in aged care facilities - good job team the most vulnerable part of our society. Less worrying about some smart *** woman in a silly hat and more worrying about the community this will decimate.

[five 7]

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

500 cases active in aged care facilities - good job team the most vulnerable part of our society. Less worrying about some smart *** woman in a silly hat and more worrying about the community this will decimate.

Sorry to hear that most of our deaths were in rest homes so it wont be looking good in a few weeks.

[Citroënbender]

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

500 cases active in aged care facilities - good job team the most vulnerable part of our society. Less worrying about some smart *** woman in a silly hat and more worrying about the community this will decimate.

I mentioned this issue the other day. We get home care visits from five different care workers. It’s not an unusual situation nationally. Why they can’t put them on a salary and assign each client just one or two workers is beyond me. Surely that would contain risk significantly.

[five 7]

Slightly off topic but some ones having fun with election hoardings near me.[/url]

[Franco Cozzo]

What's the consensus of New Zealanders on Mrs Ardern? Everyone here froths over her and she's the Twitter lovechild who can do no wrong.

Saint Jacinda of the woke

I try scope out NZ customers when they call work as well

[Ross 1]

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

What's the consensus of New Zealanders on Mrs Ardern? Everyone here froths over her and she's the Twitter lovechild who can do no wrong.

Saint Jacinda of the woke

I try scope out NZ customers when they call work as well

I'll admit to being a fan of her handling of the Covid situation, will be interesting to see how they get the economy back on track. She is straight forward, says what she thinks and means it.
The National party are a bit unstable at the moment and their newly elected leader isn't the nicest of people. They do normally do better for our economy but I think they will self destruct if they are elected in a couple of months, but would be a good bet in the following election.

[Franco Cozzo]

Originally Posted by Ross 1

I'll admit to being a fan of her handling of the Covid situation, will be interesting to see how they get the economy back on track. She is straight forward, says what she thinks and means it.
The National party are a bit unstable at the moment and their newly elected leader isn't the nicest of people. They do normally do better for our economy but I think they will self destruct if they are elected in a couple of months, but would be a good bet in the following election.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...collins-fix-it

Oh my

[PooDog]

Originally Posted by Ross 1

I'll admit to being a fan of her handling of the Covid situation, will be interesting to see how they get the economy back on track. She is straight forward, says what she thinks and means it.
The National party are a bit unstable at the moment and their newly elected leader isn't the nicest of people. They do normally do better for our economy but I think they will self destruct if they are elected in a couple of months, but would be a good bet in the following election.

Agree i think if a right wing party(national) was in power there would have been too much pressure to open businesses up , Jacinda has always been about protecting the people and stuck to it , shes pretty experienced at cleaning up disasters ....mosque shootings ,white island , now covid whether they can get the economy back up ...time will tell

Its really interesting listening to the media and talk back you get presenter after presenter talking up the right, Judith Collins is going to be the great masiah yet shes got such a history of dirty politics even amongst her own party, its suprising the NZ public can see through it all and Labours at 60% in the latest poll .......still a bit to go before the election , the rate that theyre resigning at or being sacked there may not be any left to vote for

[Citroënbender]

Academic with counter-flow opinion:

https://9now.nine.com.au/60-minutes/...e-40f8f5c3cd8b

[T3rminator]

Mask comparisons. Warning, have your breakfast first.

https://youtu.be/UNCNM7AZPFg

Ps. If you sneeze at me without a mask you are now going to get lunch in the face.

[russellw]

353 new cases for Australia and 6 deaths sees the CMR rises to 1.040% and active cases rise to 4,786. NSW recorded 15 and the balance were in Victoria. We're heading for another big total as the daily report from Victoria has just been announced as 459 cases and 10 deaths.

0 new cases and no deaths for NZ so CMR is 1.414% and active cases remain at 21.

The UK recorded 767 new cases and 61 deaths yesterday so the CMR drops to 15.313%.

Just under 78k new cases in the USA yesterday and 1,141 deaths sees CMR down to 3.495% and active cases at 48.8% with the raw numbers still rising. Note that the USA is actually minus one day due to time differences.

Other notable points:
Global cases passed 16M, the last 1M also taking just 4 days;
Global cases set a new high for daily cases with 288,997;
The USA completes 53M tests;
The USA passes 5M cases
Africa sets a new high for daily cases with 22,125;
North America sets a new high for daily cases with 92,552;

South Korea (113), El Salvador (429), Venezuela (666), Morocco (811), Costa Rica (931) and the Dominican Republic (1,819) all recorded new daily highs, those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

[russellw]

The real growth in the Victorian case numbers can be seen by looking at the rolling 7 day total.

The first week in July (W/E 4th) had 514 cases
The second week had 1,195 for a 133% increase;
The third week had 1,920 cases for a further 61% increase; and
This last week had 2,556 cases, a 33% increase on the previous week.

On the plus side, the rate of increase seems to be slowing but even if it halves again to 16% that will add almost 3k new cases in the week ahead. Likewise, the number of weekly deaths has climbed from none in Week 1 to 27 this past week and with almost 6,000 new cases in this month, there will be more added to that total.

I think Australia is probably fairly close to what the real CMR is when enough testing is done to identify the majority of cases. I'm not saying we've identified them all (we've only tested 21% of the adult population) but looking at the countries which have tested the largest percentage of their populations (Luxembourg, UAE, Bahrain), the average CMR is 0.9% and it's being dragged down by the 1.8% of Luxembourg.

I'm starting to form the view that cases / deaths per 100k of population isn't a great measure simply because: (1) the response to the pandemic differs from country to country; (2) there seems little doubt that colder climate countries tend to suffer worse and (3) there are likely differences in the availability and capability of the health care systems.

To elaborate:

Those 3 countries have all tested ~50% of their population (63% for Luxembourg) but the case numbers per 100k of population range from 592 in the UAE up to almost 2,300 for Bahrain - by way of comparison we are about 55/100k.

Likewise, the deaths per 100k of population range from 3.4 in the UAE up to 17.9 in Luxembourg but it's only 0.6/100k here in Australia and Bahrain, despite having a lot more cases per 100k is only 8.

This leaves two possible conclusions.

1. We have 10 unidentified cases for every identified case and that would put us on par with the UAE at about 550/100k which would also reduce our CMR from the current 1% to 0.1% (the UAE is about 0.5%).

2. We have done a reasonably good job of limiting the spread of the virus and the real case numbers are about twice those identified thus far which results in a CMR of about 0.5%.

Of course, both those might well be wrong. Globally, the CMR is presently a fraction over 4% but I am of the view that it is really somewhere between 0.5-1.0% which means that the number of identified cases is probably underestimated by somewhere between 6:1 and 9:1 with some countries doing almost no testing and a lot still having tested less than 10% of their population. In raw numbers that means cases have been under-reported by anything between 80M and 120M!

[T3rminator]

Russell, you are a good numbers guy. Based on what you are seeing, in your opinion, is it being "controlled"?

Vic government have said they are still concerned with the numbers, but at least it is not in the thousands and growing exponentially. Not sure what to make of that.

The trend analysis I shared earlier mentioned peak period predicted between 22nd and 26th. Today is the 26th. Next week's numbers will be critical?