Australia housing bubble

[b0son]

Quarterly inflation came in at 4.1%, lower than the forecast 4.5%. Probably safe to assume rate cuts will be coming sooner rather than later.

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by b0son

Quarterly inflation came in at 4.1%, lower than the forecast 4.5%. Probably safe to assume rate cuts will be coming sooner rather than later.

Albonomics working then.

[blueoval]

progressively making people poorer by the day. But leave Albo alone, Im sure he's due his next holiday soon and he has a plan which he'll work out poolside.

[ToryMikey]

Originally Posted by blueoval

progressively making people poorer by the day. But leave Albo alone, Im sure he's due his next holiday soon and he has a plan which he'll work out poolside.

Maybe in his spare time he’ll figure out what bracket creep is?

[MITCHAY]

They surely hold, I don't see a cut at all but who knows with the RBA.

[Polyal]

I can't see cutting either. Even the abc was sprouting economic recovery which is madness getting excited about 4% inflation rates...hold maybe but they should be still going up.

There is still fat everywhere somehow and in most states prices on the up but I get more suspicious about this data by the week.

[T3rminator]

Inflation may not be over get.

Diesel is up.

Anything that gets imported by ship is about to face a price increase. Warfies just scored a 23% pay rise. Heard port fees have jumped aswell. Assume shipping fees will jump too given the long route now required.

Tasman Butchers just told me price of whole lamb has gone up, they are now selling their $6.50/kg leg lamb at a slight loss.

Dollar fell though.

[b0son]

Originally Posted by MITCHAY

They surely hold, I don't see a cut at all but who knows with the RBA.

At the current rate of fall (1.3% per quarter), we're only half a year away from being BELOW the CPI target. If the next quarter doesnt show a slow in that decline, I think we'll see cuts by June.

[FoxtrotGolfXray 5.0]

Listening to macca on the abc this morning, and he has an economic advisor, (can't remember his name) and he is currently in the States. His view was that the employment rate in the States is still high and therefore there's no way the federal reserve will decrease rates there any time soon. And he believes that's enough to influence the rates here. So, he can't see rates here moving any time soon.

[Citroënbender]

Interesting comparison. I hope it’s a while before our economy apes too many trends of the US.

As to people reducing expenditure - or pretending to - my impression is, they’d stopped pretence by about the last Bathurst weekend. iPhones and big TVs are still flying off the shelves at places like JB. Have felt a few “news” articles read in recent months were basically trying to hector the Reserve Bank into a rates cut.

On the construction side, still seeing incompetent Chinese-run builds around me. Elapsed times are ridiculous - two years plus for some - and scheduling is not there; windows being retrofitted rather than built in. Always a near certainty for water ingress later.

[prydey]

Originally Posted by Citroënbender

As to people reducing expenditure - or pretending to - my impression is, they’d stopped pretence by about the last Bathurst weekend. iPhones and big TVs are still flying off the shelves at places like JB. .

Those with money are still spending up. The rate rises affect those who can least afford it the most.

Spending trends are hardly an accurate barometer of the economy.

Class divide is real in Australia.

[b0son]

Originally Posted by prydey

Those with money are still spending up. The rate rises affect those who can least afford it the most.

Yep. Mate of mine says his business has never been better, and his clients are spending up big. Meanwhile, I've seen the opposite. Half our contract customers have either significantly reduced their spending, or are simply gone, either in search of cheaper manufacturers, or simply closed down. And I'm getting hassled by sales people like never before trying to drum up business. But there's no business to drum up, we close our doors in 4-6 weeks....

[FoxtrotGolfXray 5.0]

Originally Posted by b0son

Yep. Mate of mine says his business has never been better, and his clients are spending up big. Meanwhile, I've seen the opposite. Half our contract customers have either significantly reduced their spending, or are simply gone, either in search of cheaper manufacturers, or simply closed down. And I'm getting hassled by sales people like never before trying to drum up business. But there's no business to drum up, we close our doors in 4-6 weeks....

Sorry to hear that, b0son. Would you mind telling us what sector your business is in?

[b0son]

Originally Posted by FoxtrotGolfXray 5.0

Sorry to hear that, b0son. Would you mind telling us what sector your business is in?

Food/complementary medicine/cosmetic manufacturing.

[blueoval]

I know it sounds morbid, but I check the ASIC public notices every day to see what is happening with companies and what companies are in trouble or restructuring. There are at least 40-50 new businesses listed every day nation wide. That number is slowly growing too. It is extremely hard to continue to run a business, keep people employed and still keep ahead of the financial game while trying to support your family. I feel for anyone now and in the months to come.

[Citroënbender]

I spoke with a sublet works contractor today, back in December they were “Sorry, too busy; call us in January”.

Now it’s “We’ll have a look this afternoon with a view to starting tomorrow”. They being attached to the housing industry, I’m genuinely surprised. It’s a domain where rework usually finds their business well.

[FTE217]

Having a couple of weeks ago been to Briz/Gold Coast stopping overnight at Coffs on the way up.
I was impressed how much building is going on incl Coffs.
Briz is a madhouse as many would know, GC the same.

Since I have been dealing with a bathroom reno and getting hold of Trades that I know are so so flat out.
The Plummer I know based on the Central Coast is snowed and upon coming to my place said he with his grew is considering heading up north, even to GC/Briz for his mate up there has siad there is so much can't get enough Trades and I'm not surprised with the ongoing Gov city upgrades and weather disasters.
Another young local chippy we know moved to Bryron to cash in on all the work that available from there to Sunshine Coast.
Suppose just depends what Industry your in.
My mechanic Sydney mate - has been flat out ever since the beginnings post covid.
Min 2/3wks in advance booked out depending the type of work your car needs.

[blueoval]

Originally Posted by FTE217

Having a couple of weeks ago been to Briz/Gold Coast stopping overnight at Coffs on the way up.
I was impressed how much building is going on incl Coffs.
Briz is a madhouse as many would know, GC the same.

Since I have been dealing with a bathroom reno and getting hold of Trades that I know are so so flat out.
The Plummer I know based on the Central Coast is snowed and upon coming to my place said he with his grew is considering heading up north, even to GC/Briz for his mate up there has siad there is so much can't get enough Trades and I'm not surprised with the ongoing Gov city upgrades and weather disasters.
Another young local chippy we know moved to Bryron to cash in on all the work that available from there to Sunshine Coast.
Suppose just depends what Industry your in.
My mechanic Sydney mate - has been flat out ever since the beginnings post covid.
Min 2/3wks in advance booked out depending the type of work your car needs.

I get the same here with anything mechanical. Whether its panel beaters, engine builders, parts suppliers, restorers, you name it, they are flat knackers. Need to book a month in advance to get their attention.

[FTE217]

yes motor game is sailing along in all fields.

As for housing, we see X developer going down but all that supply or get work from are gun ho as well that I see and hear.

As mentioned sorry to see b0son - not really understood what your into as mentioned but a real shame, all the very best..

[BENT_8]

Construction is at full steam here in SA, however, our builder is prioritising more lucrative builds over contracts signed off on months prior.
As it stands we are 2.5yrs from signing with what looks to be another 6 months to completion, meanwhile, the block of townhouses next door that saw a considerable price rise over ours for the same design has progressed much further.
We've fired off please explain emails with no response and now 3 of 6 in our block are investigating legal action to recover costs incurred due to the unacceptable delays.

My poor Daughter and partner are now living in a small bedroom with their newborn instead of settling into their new home that we were assured would be finished by xmas last year and prior to her giving birth.

[b0son]

Originally Posted by BENT_8

our builder is prioritising more lucrative builds over contracts signed off on months prior.

Our builder has very front-loaded contracts... 90% payment required with maybe 70% of the work complete. Little wonder when they received the 90% stage payment, and everyone else's (they're building maybe a dozen houses in our estate on adjacent streets), they all but ground to a halt to concentrate on slab and framing a couple of new builds that started 6 months after us.

[Syndrome]

This will impact the Australian economy (and house prices)

https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/202...-in-free-fall/

[blueoval]

Originally Posted by Syndrome

This will impact the Australian economy (and house prices)

https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/202...-in-free-fall/

https://www.news.com.au/finance/busi...df761c7dfa4964

[ToryMikey]

Originally Posted by blueoval

https://www.news.com.au/finance/busi...df761c7dfa4964

"Australia is notorious for selling off the farm and failing to value-add its food and mineral produce."

Hit the nail on the head right there...and it's exactly the reason ol' Winnie has us bent over a barrel on this one.

[fatgas]

I am so happy this little lizard has been found again:

https://www.theage.com.au/national/v...27-p5f851.html

[Walt Kowalski]

TLDR

Au is still the place the world wants to move to

Time in China convinced me of that

While ever that is the case immigration levels are high prices will outstrip demand

No end in sight AFAI can see

Unless world economy crashes

More than possible in 2024

Come to think of it.

ANYTHING is possible in 2024

[fatgas]

Originally Posted by Walt Kowalski

TLDR

Au is still the place the world wants to move to

Time in China convinced me of that

While ever that is the case immigration levels are high prices will outstrip demand

No end in sight AFAI can see

Unless world economy crashes

More than possible in 2024

Come to think of it.

ANYTHING is possible in 2024

Couldn't agree more.

[XB GS 351 Coupe]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

they are now selling their $6.50/kg leg lamb at a slight loss.

No they are not, no one sells their produce at a loss unless they have declared bankruptcy and are having a fire sale.

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by XB GS 351 Coupe

No they are not, no one sells their produce at a loss unless they have declared bankruptcy and are having a fire sale.

False. Worked for a retailer that did deals and stunts to bring customers in, hoping sale of other goods will more than make up for a single product, and then there is the prospect of repeat business.

Though in this particular instance, it wasn't intended to be a sale or stunt. Prices did fall through the floor around Nov 23, but has since shot back up.

Who am I to argue with the butcher? Was brief only.....$6.50 - $7.50 is long gone now, they did try to hold on for a while.

[Citroënbender]

I’m showing my age; in the eighties and nineties the terminology for such promotions was “loss leader” and retailers worked with the wholesaler over how the temporary deficit on a headline product was carried.