Australia housing bubble

[Polyal]

Originally Posted by hackney

In that price range there is not that much around, they are pretty well entry level homes. Not only that the market is on the rise again.

RE: qaulity, I mean I want a house where there is some audible privacy when you are on the toilet or even talking in one bedroom and you cant hear it form the adjacent room.

Currently renting a 4 bedroom house, ~3-4 years old and the walls are paper thin its a joke. Normal cookie cutter style modern house.

[hackney]

Originally Posted by Polyal

RE: qaulity, I mean I want a house where there is some audible privacy when you are on the toilet or even talking in one bedroom and you cant hear it form the adjacent room.

Currently renting a 4 bedroom house, ~3-4 years old and the walls are paper thin its a joke. Normal cookie cutter style modern house.

We don’t have that issue, 4/3/2.Two masters(his & hers) very quiet house.Really stoked with it.No kids as well!

[zilo]

Originally Posted by hackney

Nope.
August at the earliest.
1 in 4 chance of them being raised.

LMAO...heard odds longer than that in the last few months.

[hackney]

Originally Posted by zilo

LMAO...heard odds longer than that in the last few months.

‘Heard’, that is the key word.To be taken with a grain of salt.CBA is saying(as I alluded to) 1 in 4 chance.

[b0son]

1 in 4 isnt preposterous. I'm not sure what some people are smoking when they say a 50 basis point increase is absolutely what's next and is needed. It's obvious inflation has peaked, and it didnt even peak as high as it did elsewhere, yet we have had some of the most severe rises in the world. I'd be surprised if we see too many more rises now that a recession is almost certain. Cuts by the end of the year.

[T3rminator]

The experts can't even agree amongst themselves what the RBA might do. Banks have different forecasts, and they keep changing. Reckon the guvnor is likely to give the two finger salute as he walks out the door in 2 months, so I'm bracing for a couple of smaller rises between now and then.


Heard an economist raise an interesting scenario the other day. Inflation is at 6-7% but unemployement is near an all time low. I think RBA have said we might need unemployement at 4-5% to help bring inflation back.

So the question the the economist posed was....and assuming the current inflation is purely demand driven.......would the people be willing to live with high inflation for 2-3 years (keep in mind its cumulative), but have everyone in a job? Or would people be prepared to see hundreds of thousands of people start losing their jobs, but bring inflation back more quickly?

[zilo]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

The experts can't even agree amongst themselves what the RBA might do.

Maybe they should consult an expert on a car forum?

(How's that Gasolane?)

[MITCHAY]

My broker finally got back to me saying they were off last week but that it's been two weeks.. Repeated back **** I already know and call me to setup a meeting.

I asked for a rate reduction not for a refinance and I make it clear that if I refinance it is not going to be with them.

So now there is incentive for both the lender and the broker to actual earn the ****ing commission they are paid for and see what we can get without the paper work BS

[GasoLane]

Originally Posted by zilo

Maybe they should consult an expert on a car forum?

(How's that Gasolane?)

That's fine. I'll even play your theme tune for you.

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by MITCHAY

My broker finally got back to me saying they were off last week but that it's been two weeks.. Repeated back **** I already know and call me to setup a meeting.

I asked for a rate reduction not for a refinance and I make it clear that if I refinance it is not going to be with them.

So now there is incentive for both the lender and the broker to actual earn the ****ing commission they are paid for and see what we can get without the paper work BS

Usually with a rate reduction review, you just set up a meeting with the bank manager. Do you need to get the broker involved? Get the broker to quote you some rates, then take it to the bank manager for negotiation. Did that with one of my loans, and it worked! Broker didn't mind doing the work cos he knew I was looking to refinance with a couple of other loans. The broker only makes money when a new loan is settled + trailing commission. The trailing commission is peanuts per person, so I doubt he'd put you on the priority queue. But if you were to switch.....he gets good money.

[MITCHAY]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

Usually with a rate reduction review, you just set up a meeting with the bank manager. Do you need to get the broker involved? Get the broker to quote you some rates, then take it to the bank manager for negotiation. Did that with one of my loans, and it worked! Broker didn't mind doing the work cos he knew I was looking to refinance with a couple of other loans. The broker only makes money when a new loan is settled + trailing commission. The trailing commission is peanuts per person, so I doubt he'd put you on the priority queue. But if you were to switch.....he gets good money.

I have a broker. The only reason I'm with this mob in the first place is they bought out my original brokers book for salary when he sold it and then they ****ed him over.

They are paid the commission so I'm going to put the pressure on them to try to get me a good rate and if not then I'm going back to him if I have to refinance. No way I'm going to do it with them.

[hackney]

Originally Posted by GasoLane

Fine. I'll even play your theme tune for you.

[hackney]

Originally Posted by zilo

With other countries raising 50 basis points last week,
I am tipping another RBA increase next week.

Aus rates are amongst the lowest in the world....still

You were saying?

[Charliewool]

Originally Posted by hackney

You were saying?

Yep… A blow to his usual schadenfreude!

[hackney]

Originally Posted by Charliewool

Yep… A blow to his usual schadenfreude!

Indeed!

[FoxtrotGolfXray 5.0]

To br fair, zilo wasn't the only one saying that the RBA would put up rates today. I understand the big banks were split on the decision, too.

[Polyal]

Originally Posted by FoxtrotGolfXray 5.0

To br fair, zilo wasn't the only one saying that the RBA would put up rates today. I understand the big banks were split on the decision, too.

And you can spin it how you like the options are 50/50

[Syndrome]

House in my street which went on the market at the end of March is finally showing under offer. The seller dropped the asking price by almost $100,000. What is the average time for properties to sell at the moment?

[blueoval]

Originally Posted by Syndrome

House in my street which went on the market at the end of March is finally showing under offer. The seller dropped the asking price by almost $100,000. What is the average time for properties to sell at the moment?

Depends on the area. Sounds like old mate on the end of your street was possibly over inflating his market value to try and cash in on the ignorant impulse house spending and people saw through it.

[hackney]

Originally Posted by blueoval

Depends on the area. Sounds like old mate on the end of your street was possibly over inflating his market value to try and cash in on the ignorant impulse house spending and people saw through it.

But, but ‘I need’ that amount to purchase my next squillion dollar home! Market dictates as always.Well remember about 2 years or so, we were looking at a new home,at the time it was priced I think from memory around $1.35 mil mark.A buyer offered $1.285, builder knocked it back,sat on the market for nigh on two years, eventually went for $1.16 mill.Typical builder.They always say your first offer is usually your best.

[Citroënbender]

Around my area, most older places sell as development sites for $2,5-$2,9M within a fortnight of listing. They then build semis (5 bed, 3 bath, 2 car spaces) which each quickly sell for near the original price in entirety. That golden visa is a winning formula…

[zilo]

Originally Posted by hackney

You were saying?

same as i always say to a moron...get farked.

[GasoLane]

Originally Posted by zilo

same as i always say to a moron...get farked.

Seeya.

[raised by monkeys]

Originally Posted by raised by monkeys

ME bank are offering 5.58% for anyone interested, with a 2k cashback that will cover transfer charges. At least that was offered to me by my broker.

Ive just locked this in with the help of our broker.
If anyone in SA looking for a new broker i can pass you on his details. He's been super helpful on a number of accassions. Very efficient and up front.

[buggerlugs]

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-07-...loan/102557726

Going to get interesting shortly..............

[hackney]

Originally Posted by buggerlugs

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-07-...loan/102557726

Going to get interesting shortly..............

They were actually saying on the ABC this morning on Breakfast news around 1.3 million loans are going to expire on fixed rates.

[b0son]

Originally Posted by buggerlugs

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-07-...loan/102557726

Going to get interesting shortly..............

What am I missing? The fixed vs variable loans chart shows the vast majority went from fixed to variable in 2022. I've been hearing about this mortgage cliff for a year, but it seems there was actually some stairs with a handrail, and most people are already at the bottom of it, taking selfies.

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by b0son

What am I missing? The fixed vs variable loans chart shows the vast majority went from fixed to variable in 2022. I've been hearing about this mortgage cliff for a year, but it seems there was actually some stairs with a handrail, and most people are already at the bottom of it, taking selfies.

What they are saying is, that gap in the graph will look like a little step for what is about to come.

Cliff is supposed to start end of July. The rba raising rates steeply without seeing what impact its going to have, is what is having economists twitching.

[blueoval]

this scenario reminds me of the sub prime mortgages in the US in 2008. I know it's a little different, but you will see people squatting or walking away from their homes because they cannot make the repayments. Recession will be officially in full effect if that happens and banks cannot take that many people to court or remove them from their homes without substantial cost. What then?

[Citroënbender]

Originally Posted by buggerlugs

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-07-...loan/102557726

Going to get interesting shortly..............

I note the fellow mowing his lawn is using a $550 cordless mower, not a $50 second-hand petrol one. Factoring in a few consumables, it’s nearly half a thou he could have put into the mortgage.