Covid 19 -

[Franco Cozzo]

Originally Posted by superyob

How many on this thread are supposed to be working right now???

Bonus points for being on the crapper

[russellw]

In terms of recovery rates (well more accurately, active case rates), a handful of countries have no currently active cases despite having had some: Anguila, Greenland, St Barth and Yemen of which only the latter shares a land border with anyone effectively.

China (if we believe the numbers) is under 1% active cases while French Polynesia, Cambodia and the Faeroe Islands all have single digit active cases and percentages below 5%.

Australia (14.68%) and New Zealand (15.33%) are well below the global average of 63.4% while some countries have a long way to go with percentages over 90% and even the UK is still at 84% and the USA at 80.52%.

[BENT_8]

Originally Posted by Citroënbender

Bent 8, thanks for that. :p

Do you also score them by density of social media catchphrases?
Kool-Aid
Tinfoil hat
Echo chamber
Virtue signalling (add bonus point for American spelling)
Cover-up
Crooked Hillary

Umm, well....yes.

I mean, its the natural progression.

[BENT_8]

That's better, old Benty is a ***** of a bloke...and Holden lover, but he's managed to get you blokes to stop fighting for half a page now.

C'mon, show me the love...not you though Franco, I know all about your 'love'..

Oh, or you Cav, I've seen where you've been, probably still got that bloody rash that comes and goes, i'll accept that fat gutted dog for $500 though.

[Cav]

Originally Posted by Romulus

Are you unable to comprehend?

It's alright for you mate, but I have mental problems to deal with - I often have delusions of being a chick magnet with my smashing good looks.

[superyob]

Hahahahahaaaaaaaa B8

[Cav]

Originally Posted by Citroënbender

I disagree, although I acknowledge you may be stirring.

It seems an elephant in the room with predisposition to mortality, is ethnicity.

An elephant named 'ethnicity?'

And I thought 'Doris' was a weird name for an elephant.

[russellw]

Originally Posted by zipping

There are no key takeaways until the denominator is known.

Thanks for that deep and meaningful insight.

Originally Posted by Fordman1

Don’t we have beds for 1.2 Million people ?
I’m surprised ....

We have (as of the last full survey) about 65,000 public hospital beds and 34,000 in private hospitals nationally so about 100k.

Originally Posted by MITCHAY

Talking about ICU beds not normal ones. And I'd be surprised if we had even 100k beds let alone 1m

We have 2,200 ICU beds (a rate of just under 9 per 100k people) but half of those are in NSW.

[zipping]

The ramped up testing regime in Victoria has borne fruit - 7 new cases.....further investigation reveals 6 are related to an Aged car facility in Hawthorn and a Hospital in Sunshine.

In other news, after 16 odd days of no new cases, Golf is now permitted in the NT.

[Citroënbender]

Cav, is it true that the young women pay you to be their sugar daddy?

[cheap]

Originally Posted by russellw

Let's not let facts get in the way of a good hypothesis.

Since when is the EU a country? ....

I suggest you re-read what I wrote. Also, Europe is not the EU.

Current numbers for the 27 member nations of the EU:

Spain
Italy
France
Germany
Belgium
Netherlands
Portugal
Sweden
Ireland
Austria
Poland
Romania
Denmark
Czechia
Finland
Luxembourg
Hungary
Greece
Croatia
Iceland
Estonia
Bulgaria
Slovenia
Slovakia
Lithuania
Latvia
Malta

EU Deaths: 103,120 V's USA Deaths: 61,656


Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

[zipping]

Originally Posted by russellw

Thanks for that deep and meaningful insight.

Are you comparing apples with apples?

Unless you have an approximation for the % of the population infected in each country, any comparison on a country to country basis is meaningless.

The asymptomatic cases play a role here.

Gov. Andrew Cuomo revealed the preliminary results of FDNY/EMS and NYPD members who were screened for coronavirus antibodies and tested positive.

The preliminary antibody study showed that 17.1 percent of FDNY/EMT members and 10.5 percent of NYPD members tested were found to have COVID-19 antibodies. The downstate average is of about 18 percent, according to Cuomo.

https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/coro...sults/2395308/

Some preliminary testing in NYC showed up 24% of New Yorkers with antibody's. Sample could be biased both ways.

12,774 deaths with a denominator of just over 2 mill is not the same as 165k reported.

[Fordman1]

Originally Posted by MITCHAY

Talking about ICU beds not normal ones. And I'd be surprised if we had even 100k beds let alone 1m

Tongue in cheek mate.

If 5% have serious complications and go to hospital, some poor Australians start playing God.

[russellw]

Originally Posted by zipping

Are you comparing apples with apples?

Unless you have an approximation for the % of the population infected in each country, any comparison on a country to country basis is meaningless.

We can only use the data that is available which provides the numbers of confirmed cases for the countries reviewed which allows an infection rate per 100k of population to be calculated.

It is reasonable to assume that in countries with similar testing regimes that the numbers of identified cases vs unidentified ones would be similar enough but in the absence of wholesale testing of entire populations we'll never know for sure will we(?). It seems unlikely that it would be disparate enough to change the case & mortality rates per capita to such an extent that the relative comparisons became invalid.

Originally Posted by cheap

I suggest you re-read what I wrote. Also, Europe is not the EU.

EU Deaths: 103,120 V's USA Deaths: 61,656

We could equally have picked 27 African nations and the USA would have come out even worse.

Anyway, let's follow that argument to a logical conclusion.

The EU population is ~476M compared to ~331M for the USA so that's about 30% greater. The EU has 1,004,012 confirmed cases vs 1,055,303 (as of this morning) so yes, both the raw numbers and per capita case rate favours the EU with 210.9 v 318.82 per 100k for the USA.

The mortality rate, however, favours the USA with 18.46 / 100k against the EU 21.62 / 100k.

But then the entire 57 nations that make up Africa amount 1.2B people and they only have 37k cases and 1,582 deaths so their case (3.06) and mortality (0.13) rates are so far ahead of the EU and the USA as to be laughable.

I think I started by stating that the USA now had almost a third (32.9%) of the global cases and the EU has almost another third (32.1%) despite them only having 6.12% and 4.25% of the global population respectively.

[Romulus]

Originally Posted by prydey

The problem is there isn't capacity in our hospitals for 5 % of the population to all land there in a short space of time.

You then end up with hospitals having to play God as they have to prioritise their services.

Provide the evidence that 5% of the population will require hospitalisation and/or ICU care.

[Work Horse]

Originally Posted by Romulus

Provide the evidence that 5% of the population will require hospitalisation and/or ICU care.

Galactically missing the point.

Australia does not have hospital beds for 5% of the population.

Australia does not have hospital beds for 1% of the population.

Australia has about 100 000 hospital beds for a population of 25 million do the maths.

That is why Governments are ramping up the number of beds, especially ICU as we speak.

[cs123]

Originally Posted by Romulus

Provide the evidence that 5% of the population will require hospitalisation and/or ICU care.

[Romulus]

Originally Posted by cs123

image

Interesting to note USNS Comfort left New York City after sitting empty for almost three weeks. You're citing predictions, I'm citing what's actually happening.

So where's the evidence, not modelling, that 5% of the population will require hospitalisation/ICU?

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...us/3010754001/

[russellw]

Originally Posted by Romulus

Provide the evidence that 5% of the population will require hospitalisation and/or ICU care.

It's actually an interesting question.

In Australia we have had widely differing Hospitalisation / ICU / Intubation rates with hospitalisations ranging from 36% of cases (VIC) down to 3.9% (NSW). Likewise the ICU percentages range from a low of none (Tas) to 2.4% (NSW) and up to 18.4% in Victoria while intubations range from none in WA, SA, Tas through 2.0% in NSW and up to 6.3% in Victoria.

The National average is 9% of active cases receiving hospital care; 4% of active cases are in ICU and 3% of active cases are being intubated.

If those rates were to be maintained (which they wouldn't) and we have 2,200 ICU beds available then we could support about 5,000 concurrent active cases as long as they were evenly spread where the beds are (which they wouldn't be).

To put that in perspective; we currently have 990 active cases nationally.

[Ross 1]

Originally Posted by Romulus

Interesting to note USNS Comfort left New York City after sitting empty for almost three weeks. You're citing predictions, I'm citing what's actually happening.

So where's the evidence, not modelling, that 5% of the population will require hospitalisation/ICU?

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...us/3010754001/

It was never to be used for covid patients, it was for non flu related patients only.

[Romulus]

Originally Posted by Ross 1

It was never to be used for covid patients, it was for non flu related patients only.

And because the hospitals weren't overwhelmed these ships were sent away.

[cheap]

Originally Posted by cs123

image

Please provide the actual link to the Breitbart page.

[Romulus]

Originally Posted by russellw

It's actually an interesting question.

In Australia we have had widely differing Hospitalisation / ICU / Intubation rates with hospitalisations ranging from 36% of cases (VIC) down to 3.9% (NSW). Likewise the ICU percentages range from a low of none (Tas) to 2.4% (NSW) and up to 18.4% in Victoria while intubations range from none in WA, SA, Tas through 2.0% in NSW and up to 6.3% in Victoria.

The National average is 9% of active cases receiving hospital care; 4% of active cases are in ICU and 3% of active cases are being intubated.

If those rates were to be maintained (which they wouldn't) and we have 2,200 ICU beds available then we could support about 5,000 concurrent active cases as long as they were evenly spread where the beds are (which they wouldn't be).

To put that in perspective; we currently have 990 active cases nationally.

image

What you're picking up is the number of actual cases reported which require intervention. Are we picking up asymptomatic carriers, those who don't know they've got cv19 or those that haven't bothered to test for it? This goes back to the 95% of people who don't require intervention.

Do you have any data on Denmark's approach? This would be interesting to see as they're dealing with this virus in a completely different manner to most countries.

Is it mandatory or legislated you must present to a health agency or testing agency if you have a cold or flu like symptoms?

[Ross 1]

Originally Posted by Romulus

And because the hospitals weren't overwhelmed these ships were sent away.

All it proves is that with people in lockdown there is less accidents and emergencies.

[Work Horse]

Originally Posted by Ross 1

All it proves is that with people in lockdown there is less accidents and emergencies.

And that the lockdown slowed the spread of the virus.

Some obtuse posters in this thread have argued against lockdowns and other measures to slow the spread of the virus.

Those same obtuse posters argue things have not turn out nearly as bad as first predicted.

This is in part a result of the measures to slow the spread they first complained about.

I think my head may explode....

[russellw]

Originally Posted by Romulus

What you're picking up is the number of actual cases reported which require intervention. Are we picking up asymptomatic carriers, those who don't know they've got cv19 or those that haven't bothered to test for it? This goes back to the 95% of people who don't require intervention.

Do you have any data on Denmark's approach? This would be interesting to see as they're dealing with this virus in a completely different manner to most countries.

Is it mandatory or legislated you must present to a health agency or testing agency if you have a cold or flu like symptoms?

As I've already stated, we have no means of determining with any degree of statistical accuracy what the volume of asymptomatic cases actually is and the figures quoted earlier are based on a very small sample size and as such they are of no real use.

Likewise your figure of 95% not requiring intervention is plucked from where exactly? Just because you keep repeating it, doesn't make it correct and the Australian data I provided above shows that 9% of detected cases do require intervention here.

It's actually irrelevant what percentage of the population is running round asymptomatic given that (1) we already know that having had it once doesn't create immunity; (2) we've still only tested 3% of the population and (3) we have solid evidence that even a single person (asymptomatic or not) is capable of creating a cluster of new cases.

On that basis it would be reasonable to extrapolate that we are identifying a reasonable percentage of the actual cases or there would be more cluster outbreaks from infected people.

I'm not sure why you picked Denmark as 'different'. Denmark has largely followed a similar model to us and was one of the first to initiate lockdowns and legal sanctions for non-compliance and as such their case rate is better than other European countries at 155 per 100k compared to some similarly sized countries like Belgium (413) and Ireland (410) but not as well as Finland (88.5) or Australia (26.45).

They have an excellent (and free) health system which is no doubt helping keep their mortality rate well below other countries in Europe at 7.65 / 100k - Belgium is 64.7, Spain 51.9, Italy 45.7 and the Netherlands 27.5 but it's still way ahead of Australia at 0.35.

As they are about to start easing restrictions it will be a good case study to see if they get a spike in new cases above the current level of ~120-150 / day.

[FTE217]

Originally Posted by Work Horse

And that the lockdown slowed the spread of the virus.

Some obtuse posters in this thread have argued against lockdowns and other measures to slow the spread of the virus.

Those same obtuse posters argue things have not turn out nearly as bad as first predicted.

This is in part a result of the measures to slow the spread they first complained about.

I think my head may explode....

Spot on, no one like to be restricted - we haven't experienced anything like this since I don't know when but it sure has helped reduce Infections like buggery !
Imagine IF we didn't - all these people coming off cruise ships getting on with their merry lives infecting all those around them + International arrivals going here there everywhere.
We'd be in a world of hurt !
How could you not understand that.

[zipping]

Originally Posted by russellw

As I've already stated, we have no means of determining with any degree of statistical accuracy what the volume of asymptomatic cases actually is and the figures quoted earlier are based on a very small sample size and as such they are of no real use.

While the study I linked to is too small to be of value in and of itself, there have been another 5 similar studies showing similar results including one done in the prison system in four states of the US and 1 in Italy. Another was in California.

[zipping]

Originally Posted by russellw

It's actually irrelevant what percentage of the population is running round asymptomatic given that (1) we already know that having had it once doesn't create immunity; (2) we've still only tested 3% of the population and (3) we have solid evidence that even a single person (asymptomatic or not) is capable of creating a cluster of new cases.

I don't think this is right Russ, sparsity of direct evidence of asymptomatic carriers makes interpretation of the epidemiological record difficult

[Ross 1]

Originally Posted by Work Horse

And that the lockdown slowed the spread of the virus.

Some obtuse posters in this thread have argued against lockdowns and other measures to slow the spread of the virus.

Those same obtuse posters argue things have not turn out nearly as bad as first predicted.

This is in part a result of the measures to slow the spread they first complained about.

I think my head may explode....

It's okay, give them another 24hrs to see a Trump press conference and they will be an expert on a different part of the subject.