Covid 19 -

[russellw]

Australia / New Zealand
NSW records 9,849 cases in the current period and the 10-day average growth rate increases to 0.9690 from 0.9690 and the actual line remains above the predictive trend.



VIC records 9,265 cases in the current period and the 10-day average growth rate increases to 1.0054 (from 0.9831) while the actual line remains above the predictive trend.



Here is the predictive trend graph for four States based on cases since Omicron was identified which, for our purposes, will be taken as December 1st. Total deaths for the pandemic have now passed 7,000.



New Zealand data goes back to January 15th and the actual line is still above the predictive trend line.

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT April 25th 2022.

30,088 new cases for Australia and 15 deaths so the CMR is 0.122%.

NZ recorded 5,750 cases and 8 deaths for a CMR of 0.072%.

The UK didn’t report for a CMR of 0.790%.

40,496 new cases in the USA yesterday and 109 deaths sees CMR at 1.232%.

Other notable points:
Asia passes 147M cases;

Taiwan (5,221) ...recorded new highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

No countries move above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period and none drop below.

[Citroënbender]

Am I correct in understanding that from next Friday (29th April) no Australian state consistently requires a preemptive application for people to enter it from another state?

IOW we are mostly free to travel unless affected by state rules on isolation, but remain bound by varying mandates on masks and QR check-ins.

Been a long time coming.

[russellw]

The current fortnight of UK data for cases and elapsed mortalities has finished.

There were 763,333 (-20%) cases in the period to 8/4 and a lower 4,037 deaths between 12-26/4 for a CMR of 0.529 which is again higher than that of the previous period (0.433%) and higher than it has been for some months.

Thus, in the 270 days since 'freedom day' they have totalled 16,159,453 cases and 44,561 deaths for an overall CMR of 0.276% which is above the 0.263% at day 255.

Here it is graphed - note that the base column at the end is the 2 week period prior to freedom day.



On an annualised basis, that’s 21.84M cases and about 60k deaths (at the average CMR) in a full year.

[russellw]

Australia / New Zealand
NSW records 12,188 cases in the current period and the 10-day average growth rate increases to 1.0444 from 0.9921 and the actual line remains above the predictive trend.


VIC records 10,734 cases in the current period and the 10-day average growth rate decreases to 1.0359 (from 1.0054) while the actual line remains above the predictive trend.



Here is the predictive trend graph for four States based on cases since Omicron was identified which, for our purposes, will be taken as December 1st.




New Zealand data goes back to January 15th and the actual line is still above the predictive trend line.



As it was the end of our week yesterday, here are the weekly case numbers with NSW having 29,397 more cases then Victoria last week while Victoria recorded 2,766 less cases than the previous week; NSW recorded 5,318 less, Queensland 1,351 more and WA 4,163 more. The week totalled 297,695 cases or 2.2% less than last week.

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT April 27th 2022.

39,700 new cases for Australia and 60 deaths so the CMR is 0.123%.

NZ recorded 9,902 cases and 22 deaths for a CMR of 0.074%.

The UK reported 17,111 cases and 304 deaths for a CMR of 0.793%.

70,691 new cases in the USA yesterday and 704 deaths sees CMR at 1.231%.

Other notable points:
Global cases pass 511M;
Global deaths pass 6.25M, the last 50k in 18 days;
Europe passes 190M cases;
North America passes 98M cases;
The UK passes 22M cases;

Taiwan (8,923) ...recorded new highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

[russellw]

Australia / New Zealand
NSW records 13,771 cases in the current period and the 10-day average growth rate decreases to 1.0425 from 1.0444 and the actual line remains above the predictive trend.



VIC records 10,427 cases in the current period and the 10-day average growth rate remains at 1.0359 while the actual line remains above the predictive trend.



Here is the predictive trend graph for four States based on cases since Omicron was identified which, for our purposes, will be taken as December 1st. Total deaths for the pandemic have now passed 7,000.



New Zealand data goes back to January 15th and the actual line is still above the predictive trend line. Total cases pass the 900k mark.

[russellw]

The UK has just completed it's first 12-month long COVID report and while the sample size was relatively small, the reported and measured outcomes didn't differ much between the 5 month and 12 months tests.

At the latter, the ten most common persistent symptoms were fatigue (60·1%), aching muscles (54·6%), physically slowing down (52·9%), poor sleep (52·3%), breathlessness (51·4%), joint pain or swelling (47·6%), slowing down in thinking (46·7%), pain (46·6%), short-term memory loss (44·6%) and limb weakness (41·9%).

It should be noted that the median age of study participants was 58.6 and they had all been hospitalised with their original diagnosis so they were at the more sever end to start with.

[russellw]

Three more study results.

The first deals with infection rates for vaccinated v unvaccinated people which basically found that at worst (mixed socialisation) vaccinated people were 6x less likely to be infected and at best (non mixed) 8x less likely than the unvaccinated.

The next (from the USA) looked at the correlation between vaccination rates and mortality which identified that each 10% increase in vaccination coverage resulted in an 8% reduction in mortality and a 7% drop in infections.

It also noted that the pandemic reduced the National life expectancy rate by 1.5 years, the largest decrease since WWII.

The third (from the UK) looked at vaccine efficacy over time:

The study reviewed 11,123 hospital or emergency department admissions. In adjusted analyses, effectiveness of two doses of the BNT162b2 vaccine against the omicron variant was 41% against hospital admission and 31% against emergency department admission at 9 months or longer after the second dose. After three doses, effectiveness of BNT162b2 against hospital admission due to the omicron variant was 85% at less than 3 months but fell to 55% at 3 months or longer, although confidence intervals were wide for the latter estimate.

Against emergency department admission, the effectiveness of three doses of BNT162b2 against the omicron variant was 77% at less than 3 months but fell to 53% at 3 months or longer.

It concluded:

Three doses of BNT162b2 conferred high protection against hospital and emergency department admission due to both the delta and omicron variants in the first 3 months after vaccination. However, 3 months after receipt of a third dose, waning was apparent against SARS-CoV-2 outcomes due to the omicron variant, including hospital admission. Additional doses of current, adapted, or novel COVD-19 vaccines might be needed to maintain high levels of protection against subsequent waves of SARS-CoV-2 caused by the omicron variant or future variants with similar escape potential.

[russellw]

Australia / New Zealand
NSW records 11,903 cases in the current period and the 10-day average growth rate decreases to 1.0318 (from 1.0425) and the actual line remains above the predictive trend.



VIC records 11,083 cases in the current period and the 10-day average growth rate decreases to 1.02989 (from 1.0359) while the actual line remains above the predictive trend.



Here is the predictive trend graph for four States based on cases since Omicron was identified which, for our purposes, will be taken as December 1st.
The ACT passes 100k cases whole of pandemic while Victoria passes 1M cases this year.



New Zealand data goes back to January 15th and the actual line is still above the predictive trend line. Total cases pass the 900k mark.

[russellw]

Australia / New Zealand
NSW records 11,709 cases in the current period and the 10-day average growth rate decreases to 0.9881 (from 1.0318) and the actual line remains above the predictive trend.



VIC records 9,064 cases in the current period and the 10-day average growth rate decreases to 0.9923 (from 1.0289) while the actual line remains above the predictive trend.



Here is the predictive trend graph for four States based on cases since Omicron was identified which, for our purposes, will be taken as December 1st.



New Zealand data goes back to January 15th and the actual line is still above the predictive trend line.

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT April 29th 2022.

41,696 new cases for Australia and 24 deaths so the CMR is 0.122%.

NZ recorded 8,325 cases and 13 deaths for a CMR of 0.075%.

The UK reported 12,415 cases and 216 deaths for a CMR of 0.794%.

70,675 new cases in the USA yesterday and 425 deaths sees CMR at 1.230%.

Other notable points:
Oceania passes 7M cases;
Asia passes 83M cases;

China (5,659); and
Taiwan (12,313)

...recorded new highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

No countries move above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period while none drop below.

[AlanD]

Originally Posted by russellw

Three more study results.

The first deals with infection rates for vaccinated v unvaccinated people which basically found that at worst (mixed socialisation) vaccinated people were 6x less likely to be infected and at best (non mixed) 8x less likely than the unvaccinated.

The next (from the USA) looked at the correlation between vaccination rates and mortality which identified that each 10% increase in vaccination coverage resulted in an 8% reduction in mortality and a 7% drop in infections.

It also noted that the pandemic reduced the National life expectancy rate by 1.5 years, the largest decrease since WWII.

The third (from the UK) looked at vaccine efficacy over time:

The study reviewed 11,123 hospital or emergency department admissions. In adjusted analyses, effectiveness of two doses of the BNT162b2 vaccine against the omicron variant was 41% against hospital admission and 31% against emergency department admission at 9 months or longer after the second dose. After three doses, effectiveness of BNT162b2 against hospital admission due to the omicron variant was 85% at less than 3 months but fell to 55% at 3 months or longer, although confidence intervals were wide for the latter estimate.

Against emergency department admission, the effectiveness of three doses of BNT162b2 against the omicron variant was 77% at less than 3 months but fell to 53% at 3 months or longer.

It concluded:

Three doses of BNT162b2 conferred high protection against hospital and emergency department admission due to both the delta and omicron variants in the first 3 months after vaccination. However, 3 months after receipt of a third dose, waning was apparent against SARS-CoV-2 outcomes due to the omicron variant, including hospital admission. Additional doses of current, adapted, or novel COVD-19 vaccines might be needed to maintain high levels of protection against subsequent waves of SARS-CoV-2 caused by the omicron variant or future variants with similar escape potential.

Quite interesting Russell, and thanks for the continuation of the data and graphical posts.

SWMBO and I go for our 4th shots next week after the third a week prior to last Christmas.

We are scheduled to fly to the UK in early September. The figures shown above make me wonder if a pre-emptive 5th shot on September 1 would be a good idea to elevate the safety factor.

Guess I'll give myself a "sticky note" to ask the GP's opinion when we see him for the six month visit to renew scripts.

I'll try to remember to post that opinion when it occurs.

Cheers

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT April 30th 2022.

39,258 new cases for Australia and 53 deaths so the CMR is 0.122%.

NZ recorded 7,122 cases and 6 deaths for a CMR of 0.075%.

The UK didn’t report for a CMR of 0.794%.

72,405 new cases in the USA yesterday and 381 deaths sees CMR at 1.229%(ê).

Other notable points: (weekend reporting)
Global cases pass 513M;
Europe passes 191M cases;

Taiwan (15,149)

...recorded new highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

No countries move above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period while none drop below.

[russellw]

Australia / New Zealand
NSW records 9,303 cases in the current period and the 10-day average growth rate decreases to 0.9544 (from 0.9881) and the actual line remains above the predictive trend.



VIC records 7,654 cases in the current period and the 10-day average growth rate decreases to 0.9763 (from 0.9923) while the actual line remains above the predictive trend.



Here is the predictive trend graph for four States based on cases since Omicron was identified which, for our purposes, will be taken as December 1st.



New Zealand data goes back to January 15th and the actual line is still above the predictive trend line. Total deaths pass the 700 mark.

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT May 1st 2022.

32,536 new cases for Australia and 16 deaths so the CMR is 0.121%(ê).

NZ recorded 5,728 cases and 5 deaths for a CMR of 0.075%.

The UK didn’t report for a CMR of 0.794%.

24,751 new cases in the USA yesterday and 115 deaths sees CMR at 1.229%.

Other notable points: (weekend reporting)
Asia passes 148M cases;

Taiwan (17,085)

...recorded new highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

No countries move above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period while none drop below.

[russellw]

Australia / New Zealand
NSW records 7,723 cases in the current period and the 10-day average growth rate decreases to 0.9498 (from 0.9544) and the actual line remains above the predictive trend.



VIC records 8,109 cases in the current period and the 10-day average growth rate increases to 0.9938 (from 0.9763) while the actual line remains above the predictive trend.



Here is the predictive trend graph for four States based on cases since Omicron was identified which, for our purposes, will be taken as December 1st.



New Zealand data goes back to January 15th and the actual line is still above the predictive trend line. Total deaths pass the 700 mark.

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT May 2nd 2022.

31,086 new cases for Australia and 6 deaths so the CMR is 0.121%.

NZ recorded 6,731 cases and 6 deaths for a CMR of 0.076%(é).

The UK didn’t report for a CMR of 0.794%.

49,428 new cases in the USA yesterday and 120 deaths sees CMR at 1.228%(ê).

Other notable points:

Taiwan (17,858)

...recorded new highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

No countries move above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period while none drop below.

[russellw]

Australia / New Zealand
NSW records 9,656 cases in the current period and the 10-day average growth rate increases to 0.9922 (from 0.9498) and the actual line remains above the predictive trend.



VIC records 10,184 cases in the current period and the 10-day average growth rate increases to 1.0333 (from 0.9938) while the actual line remains above the predictive trend.



Here is the predictive trend graph for four States based on cases since Omicron was identified which, for our purposes, will be taken as December 1st. Queensland passes the 1M case mark and deaths for Australia pass 5,000 in 2022.



New Zealand data goes back to January 15th and the actual line is still above the predictive trend line.

[russellw]

Australia / New Zealand
NSW records 11,939 cases in the current period for a 10-day average growth rate of 1.0279 (0.9222) and the actual line remains above the predictive trend.



VIC records 10,779 cases in the current period for a 10 day average growth of 1.0517 (1.0333) while the actual line remains above the predictive trend.



Here is the predictive trend graph for four States based on cases since Omicron was identified which, for our purposes, will be taken as December 1st.



New Zealand data goes back to January 15th and the actual line is still above the predictive trend line.



As it was the end of our week yesterday, here are the weekly case numbers with NSW having 26,845 more cases then Victoria last week while Victoria recorded 4,382 more cases than the previous week; NSW recorded 13,465 less, Queensland 9,758 less and WA 693 more. The week totalled 277,987 cases or 6.6% less than last week. I've added SA into the graph this week.

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT May 3rd 2022.

37,951 new cases for Australia and 66 deaths so the CMR is 0.121%. Australia passes 6M cases in total.

NZ recorded 9,269 cases and 18 deaths for a CMR of 0.077%(é).

The UK reported 35,518 cases and 407 deaths (over 4 days) for a CMR of 0.794%.

71,193 new cases in the USA yesterday and 288 deaths sees CMR at 1.228%.

Other notable points:
Global cases pass 514M;

Taiwan (23,139)

...recorded new highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

No countries move above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period while Thailand drops below.

[russellw]

Australia / New Zealand
Please note that all the trend lines have been amended to 4th order polynomials in the graphs to more accurately reflect the current trends.

NSW records 18,529 cases in the current period for a 10-day average growth rate of 1.1112 (1.0279) and the actual line remains above the predictive trend.



VIC records 11,596 cases in the current period for a 10 day average growth of 1.0517 (unchanged) while the actual line is just above the predictive trend.



Here is the predictive trend graph for four States based on cases since Omicron was identified which, for our purposes, will be taken as December 1st.



New Zealand data goes back to January 15th and the actual line is below the predictive trend line.

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT May 4th 2022.

46,588 new cases for Australia and 57 deaths so the CMR is 0.121%.

NZ recorded 8,565 cases and 22 deaths for a CMR of 0.078% (é).

The UK reported 16,665 cases and 227 deaths yesterday for a CMR of 0.795% (é).

83,880 new cases in the USA yesterday and 734 deaths sees CMR at 1.227% (ê).

Other notable points:
Global cases pass 515M;
Europe passes 192M cases;
Germany passes 25M cases;

Taiwan (28,487)

...recorded new highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

No countries move above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period while Finland drops below.

[russellw]

Australia / New Zealand
Please note that all the trend lines have been amended to 4th order polynomials in the graphs to more accurately reflect the current trends.

NSW records 10,995 cases in the current period for a 10-day average growth rate of 1.0472 (1.1112) and the actual line remains above the predictive trend.



VIC records 10,035 cases in the current period for a 10 day average growth of 1.0170 (1.0517) while the actual line is just below the predictive trend. Victoria also passes 3,000 deaths for the pandemic.



Here is the predictive trend graph for four States based on cases since Omicron was identified which, for our purposes, will be taken as December 1st. Queensland records a new record high with 11,493 cases.



New Zealand data goes back to January 15th and the actual line remains below the predictive trend line.

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT May 5th 2022.

54,281 new cases for Australia and 56 deaths so the CMR is 0.121%.

NZ recorded 8,697 cases and 21 deaths for a CMR of 0.080% (é).

The UK reported 12,460 cases and 438 deaths yesterday for a CMR of 0.796% (é).

99,049 new cases in the USA yesterday and 1,708 deaths sees CMR at 1.228% (é).

Other notable points:
None

Taiwan (30,106)

...recorded new highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

Panama moves above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period while Malta drops below.

[five 7]

Chickens have come home to roost....
https://youtu.be/ymX1T3S5x5I

[russellw]

Originally Posted by five 7

Chickens have come home to roost....
https://youtu.be/ymX1T3S5x5I

For a vaccine that wasn't even available here. Put your conspiracy theories back in the box labelled 'Looney' and spare us the hand wringing.

[russellw]

Australia / New Zealand

NSW records 11,671 cases in the current period for a 10-day average growth rate of 1.0296 (1.0472) and the actual line remains above the predictive trend.



VIC records 9,365 cases in the current period for a 10 day average growth of 0.9944 (1.0193) while the actual line is below the predictive trend.



Here is the predictive trend graph for four States based on cases since Omicron was identified which, for our purposes, will be taken as December 1st.



New Zealand data goes back to January 15th and the actual line remains below the predictive trend line.

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT May 6th 2022.

38,113 new cases for Australia and 31 deaths so the CMR is 0.121%.

NZ recorded 7,421 cases and 23 deaths for a CMR of 0.082% (é).

The UK reported 11,051 cases and 228 deaths yesterday for a CMR of 0.798% (é).

84,574 new cases in the USA yesterday and 364 deaths sees CMR at 1.227% (ê).

Other notable points:
Global cases pass 516M;
Spain passes 12M cases;
Japan passes 8M cases;

Taiwan (36,213) – for the 20th consecutive day

...recorded new highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

No countries move above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period while France drops below.

[five 7]

Originally Posted by russellw

For a vaccine that wasn't even available here. Put your conspiracy theories back in the box labelled 'Looney' and spare us the hand wringing.

Never said it was. title of thread doesn't say "Covid 19 but only in Australia". Personally no six people put in hospital through Pfizer shots( Heart issues) mainly young men, my brother in law was rushed to hospital the day he got the shot, he thought he was dying had crushing chest pain and difficulty breathing, was told get another one it will kill you straight from doctors mouth. Wrote to Ashly Bloomfield to get a exemption, reply was no just get the shot, but that's probably false truth and misinformation. Coming from our own Prime she said don't worry when asked about all the reactions she said, 'it just shows the vaccine is working" spare me. How far down the track are we going to find all these heart issues rearing its head and the damage that has been done. Sorry if what I have witnessed and feelings on this is classed looney and hand wringing then so be it.