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#6931 | ||
Chairman & Administrator
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Location: 1975
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It's a good question and one which I can't answer. It could be because the State average comes from one data source whereas the regional / metro is from another.
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Observatio Facta Rotae
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#6932 | ||
Chairman & Administrator
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Location: 1975
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Let's drill down on Europe a bit. The data is up to midnight on the 9th October.
The first set of data looks at the countries with the highest case numbers and we can see a steep increase for France over the last week; the UK having continued to climb over the last month and only Spain showing a steady downward trend. ![]() The next highest group have all trended upward quite sharply since the beginning of October, only Romania slightly less so. ![]() The third group have also all trended upward at different rates over the last week with Portugal having the steepest climb and the other two fairly similar curves. ![]() The fourth group is a little more inconsistent with Bulgaria having the steepest increase; Norway, Denmark and Croatia having milder but similar increases; Serbia, Greece and Bosnia having relatively mild increases, with only Albania trending downward. ![]() All but one of those countries (Serbia) is higher than their 95th percentile daily case numbers over the last 7 days; 10 of them (Belgium, Bosnia, Bulgaria, Croatia, France, Greece, Hungary, Portugal, Romania & the UK) have recorded new daily case highs within the last 10 days and most of those which haven't had very high first wave cases. ![]()
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Observatio Facta Rotae
Last edited by russellw; 11-10-2020 at 02:22 PM. |
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#6933 | ||
Chairman & Administrator
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Location: 1975
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Looking at those which haven't recorded their highest case numbers inside the last 10 days we have:
Albania, which recorded their high of 178 cases on 24th August and their high last week of 169 isn't far off it. ![]() Serbia has already had two waves, one in March and one in July / August and looks to be starting a third wave even if the trend line is downward. ![]() Norway is in the midst of a second wave that is nowhere near as bad as the first wave but the number have been climbing this last 10 days. ![]() Italy is also in the grip of a strengthening second wave and the numbers are starting to close in on the first wave peaks. ![]() Germany is also having a strong second wave but they are still well short of the first wave peak even if they are steadily climbing. ![]() Austria is probably already above the first wave peak realistically as that peak was a 'one-day' number and the recent numbers have all been higher than anything since. ![]() Spain looks OK but only because they are on the downward side of the second wave, having peaked some three weeks ago. ![]()
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Observatio Facta Rotae
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#6934 | |||
Ford G6ET FG MkII
Join Date: Jul 2020
Location: W.A Cap. Nth. Sub.
Posts: 485
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Quote:
![]() Thinking it will all be under control via a vaccine 'soon' is unlikely I think we all agree. Not sure where it's at (latest dev.) but better testing, hot spot control I feel will take over from economic destruction long before vaccine. Common sense ? ![]() Last edited by Mr_G6ET; 11-10-2020 at 03:38 PM. Reason: Fudged it ! |
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#6935 | ||
FF.Com.Au Hardcore
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Melbourne
Posts: 6,891
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Looking for some advice. Has anyone successfully applied to leave the country since restrictions were imposed?
My cousin had his first child in Oct last year. In Jan, the mum took the baby overseas to meet relatives. Then the pandemic hit and restrictions kicked in and they haven't been able to return since. Yes, they are aware they can fly back, but they think flying and quarantining in a hotel with other potentially infected guests is too risky for the baby. Probably a good call given what has transpired. My cousin applied to the gov to "reunite" with the family overseas. He is willing to take the risk that he may not be able to return in the foreseeable future. Application was rejected! He has missed the 1st bday and doesn't know when they will reunite. He lives alone and I can't imagine what his mental health would be like, but he assures me he is "ok". Does anyone know what the genuine reason is on preventing people from leaving the country? How many other countries are preventing people from leaving? This is one rule I can't understand. |
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#6936 | |||
Donating Member
![]() Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Morayfield
Posts: 27,892
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Quote:
Yes, Tony Abbott and George Pell did. I assume they have friends that you don't...
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I love Holdens.... |
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#6937 | |||
I am Groot
![]() Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Burnett Heads, Qld
Posts: 6,840
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Quote:
And of course there is this fellow..... https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/...21-p55o8s.html
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.. ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() "Those were the days when the cars were cars, they weren't built out of an Ikea pack like they are now and clothed in plastic; they were real cars." John Bowe |
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#6938 | ||
N/A all the way
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Melbourne
Posts: 3,459
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Because they will want to come back and we have a huge problem already re admitting citizens, why send more over? - pretty compelling.
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BA GT 5.88 litres of Modular Boss Powered Muscle 300++ RWKW N/A on 98 octane on any dyno, happy or sad, on any day, with any operator you choose - 12.39@115.5 full weight |
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#6939 | ||||
FF.Com.Au Hardcore
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Melbourne
Posts: 6,891
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Quote:
Quote:
Having said that, another cousin was granted leave after her father unexpectedly passed away. It was granted on the day before all outgoing flights were temporarily grounded. The letter came 15 mins after her original and last flight departed from Melb. So she had to book an immediate flight to Syd, then from Syd to Bris, then out. ![]() |
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#6940 | ||
3..2..1..
Join Date: Nov 2009
Location: Bellbird park
Posts: 7,218
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Just get them on a plane back to Australia as soon as possible.
Any small risk faced in hotel quarantine is a risk I’d be far happier with than sitting in a country overseas with no support and the very real risk of the situation deteriorating even further. Get them home while you still can. |
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#6941 | |||
Virtuous Bogan (TM)
![]() Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: TAS
Posts: 27,558
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Quote:
I cant imagine how that must feel, not having any idea of when you are going to see your new born would be tough.
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#6942 | ||
WT GT
![]() Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: The GSS
Posts: 17,759
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I have a cousin in Israel who had a serious heart attack recently. He's not getting the medical assistance that he needs given how dire the second Zombie outbreak is there ATM and he can't fly home. We could lose him as a result.
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#6943 | ||
DIY Tragic
Join Date: Apr 2018
Location: Sydney, more than not. I hate it.
Posts: 21,824
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I’ve been waiting to hear some recent official figures come out for Israel, given the several weeks of holiday events only concluded Sunday night.
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#6944 | ||
Chairman & Administrator
![]() ![]() Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: 1975
Posts: 107,006
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Data valid as at 23:55 GMT October 11th, 2020.
Note: As not all Australian States report at the same time, the data below is based on the previous full day reporting except for the Victorian 14 day moving averages. 21 new cases for Australia and 1 death so the CMR rises to 3.294% while active cases increase to 1,364. NSW recorded 5; WA & SA 2 cases each with the balance in Victoria. The Victorian State 14 day moving average is now back down to 10.57 with metro rising to 9.9 (11 unknown) and regional at 0.4 with no unknown cases. Victoria reported 15 new cases for the last 24 hours. 1 new case and no deaths for NZ so CMR is 1.336% and active cases rise to 46. The country completed 1M tests or the equivalent of 27% of the adult population. (Disclaimer: before the pedants step in, it should be noted that this does not imply that 27% of the population have been tested as some individuals may receive numerous tests. It is only useful to compare with similar data from other countries as an indicator of how much testing has been conducted). The UK had 12,872 new cases yesterday. We know they are now not counting their mortalities by the WHO guidelines so we are going to ignore the CMR but even using their method they recorded 65 deaths. Just over 54.5k new cases in the USA yesterday and 723 deaths sees CMR drop to 2.760% and active cases rise to 33.2% with the raw numbers rising and now back over 2.6M. Note that the USA is actually minus one day due to time differences. Other notable points: Global cases set a new daily high of 359,612 (10/10); Europe passes 6M cases; The USA completes 118M, India 86M, Germany 18M, Canada & Australia 8M, Saudi Arabia 7M and New Zealand 1M tests; Europe recorded a new daily high of 110,050 (9/10); Slovenia (411); Slovakia (1,087); Belgium (7,950) and Russia (13,634) all recorded new daily highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.
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Observatio Facta Rotae
Last edited by russellw; 12-10-2020 at 01:48 PM. |
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#6945 | |||
Chairman & Administrator
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Posts: 107,006
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Quote:
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Observatio Facta Rotae
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#6946 | |||
FF.Com.Au Hardcore
Join Date: Jul 2010
Location: NSW
Posts: 4,324
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Quote:
I also got a vaccination in my car in the car park during a heavy downpour. Dodgy AF. |
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#6947 | ||
FF.Com.Au Hardcore
Join Date: Apr 2009
Posts: 781
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And a second head rolls over the security SNAFU in Victoria.
Chris Eccles, the permanent Secretary of the Victorian Dept of Premier and Cabinent, resigned earlier today when phone records show he did contact the then Police Commissioner in the missing six minute interval. Go here for the full story: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-10-...signs/12753610 Makes for interesting reading - and as we might expect the Leader of the Opposition is busy making statements about resignations of others. I feel that Mr O'Brien needs to be careful - the day may come when he finds himself in a similar position. One wonders how he might react in similar circumstances. I know it feels good to assign blame, but I do wonder if any good purpose follows the blood letting. If the lessons resulting from the enquiry are heeded, then we will see a more co-ordinated response if, and i hope they do not, similar actions are required at a future date. And to avoid taking this thread away from the Covid 19 question, I'll start a new thread about lessons to be learned in the BAr. Go your hardest!
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AlanD ![]() Our Drive: Mondeo MD TDCi Titanium Wagon Ruby Red |
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#6948 | ||
🚫⏰4️⃣🐃💩
Join Date: Sep 2012
Posts: 1,901
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Despite scientific evidence that immunity from COVID is not possible, one man in the USA has stated he is now immune to COVID, and there's a "protective glow" around him.
Anyone know anything about this protective glow, and where it might be coming from? |
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#6949 | |||
Virtuous Bogan (TM)
![]() Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: TAS
Posts: 27,558
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Quote:
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#6950 | ||
FF.Com.Au Hardcore
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 1,848
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The second wave analysis is interesting, but I wonder at its meaningfulness without more context.
A second wave where only symptomatic people are tested is different in meaning to a second wave where asymptomatic people are tested. Also a second wave with no corresponding second wave in deaths (two weeks behind) or hospitalisations (half week behind), means something else. And a second wave where there were strict lockdowns vss where there were minimal lockdowns. A second wave where some individuals are tested more than once. Perhaps you guys see my point - context. |
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#6951 | ||
FF.Com.Au Hardcore
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Melbourne
Posts: 6,891
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Gents, don't be so cynical. Leading health expert, Dr Fauci, has endorsed him in an un-fabricated campaign video. True story.
Speaking of 2nd wave, has there been any other country in the world who has been able to "contain" a genuine 2nd wave as well as we have? Not talking about a NZ who had one or two cases pop up here and there, but say reaching 500+ new cases each day? It's looking like it is out of control again in Europe. UK hospitalisation rates are rising again. Sweden...now thinking about restrictions? |
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#6952 | ||
FF.Com.Au Hardcore
Join Date: Mar 2019
Posts: 596
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Dunno. Could be coming from one of Pete Evan's special lamps, or could just be Le Tan
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#6953 | |||
FF.Com.Au Hardcore
Join Date: Nov 2005
Location: perth
Posts: 4,355
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Quote:
just my feeling
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yes still (as money n time permit) doing the rebuilding the zh fairlane with a clevo 400m 4v heads injected whipple blown with aode 4 speed trans to a 9" ....... we'll get there eventually just remember don't be afraid to try something new. Remember, amateurs built the Ark...Professionals built the Titanic! I have taken up meditation... at least it's better than sitting around doing nothing !! |
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#6954 | ||
Al
Join Date: Feb 2015
Location: South Aus.
Posts: 1,698
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Probs just a winning glow.... BTW, looking forwards to your reaction when he's re-elected for 4 more years!
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#6955 | |||
I am Groot
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Location: Burnett Heads, Qld
Posts: 6,840
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Quote:
2c's worth.........
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.. ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() "Those were the days when the cars were cars, they weren't built out of an Ikea pack like they are now and clothed in plastic; they were real cars." John Bowe |
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#6956 | |||
FF.Com.Au Hardcore
Join Date: Nov 2005
Location: perth
Posts: 4,355
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Quote:
ind is also hope our leaders would learn but not so faithfull
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yes still (as money n time permit) doing the rebuilding the zh fairlane with a clevo 400m 4v heads injected whipple blown with aode 4 speed trans to a 9" ....... we'll get there eventually just remember don't be afraid to try something new. Remember, amateurs built the Ark...Professionals built the Titanic! I have taken up meditation... at least it's better than sitting around doing nothing !! |
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#6957 | ||
Chairman & Administrator
![]() ![]() Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: 1975
Posts: 107,006
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Data valid as at 23:55 GMT October 12th, 2020.
Note: As not all Australian States report at the same time, the data below is based on the previous full day reporting except for the Victorian 14 day moving averages. 22 new cases for Australia and no deatha so the CMR drops to 3.292% while active cases increase to 1,376. NSW recorded 6; WA recorded 2 cases with the balance in Victoria. The Victorian State 14 day moving average is now back up to 11.29 with metro rising to 10.0 (13 unknown) and regional at 0.4 with no unknown cases. Victoria reported 12 new cases for the last 24 hours. No new case and no deaths for NZ so CMR is 1.336% and active cases remain at 45. The UK had 13,972 new cases yesterday. We know they are now not counting their mortalities by the WHO guidelines so we are going to ignore the CMR but even using their method they recorded 50 deaths. Just over 42.5k new cases in the USA yesterday and 325 deaths sees CMR drop to 2.749% and active cases drop to 33.1% with the raw numbers rising and now back over 2.6M. Note that the USA is actually minus one day due to time differences. Other notable points: Global cases pass 36M, the last 1M taking 3 days; Global cases set a new daily high of 368,555 (10/10); The USA passes 8M cases; The USA completes 119M, India 87M, Russia 51M, UK 27M and Spain 14M tests; Europe recorded a new daily high of 116,575 (10/10); Libya (1,109) and the Netherlands (6,845) both recorded new daily highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.
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Observatio Facta Rotae
Last edited by russellw; 13-10-2020 at 02:13 PM. |
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#6958 | ||||
Donating Member
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Location: Heading thru Hell (Corner)
Posts: 8,177
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Quote:
Is this an error or a result of the reporting timeframes? Edit. And I assume this is supposed to be in the 300,00 bracket, not millions? Quote:
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Labels are for jars, not for people. Life is a journey, not a destination. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Daily: 2013 FGII EcoLPi in Winter White Play: 2015 FG X XR8 in Emperor Show' N Shine thread Gone, but not forgotten: 2015 SZII petrol Titanium Territory in Emperor |
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#6959 | |||
Chairman & Administrator
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Location: 1975
Posts: 107,006
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Quote:
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Observatio Facta Rotae
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#6960 | ||
Donating Member
![]() Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Heading thru Hell (Corner)
Posts: 8,177
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Cheers, Russ. Thought that the differing reporting times may have been the factor.
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Labels are for jars, not for people. Life is a journey, not a destination. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Daily: 2013 FGII EcoLPi in Winter White Play: 2015 FG X XR8 in Emperor Show' N Shine thread Gone, but not forgotten: 2015 SZII petrol Titanium Territory in Emperor |
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