Fueling the falcon. When does it become too much?

[4.9 EF Futura]

You're all assuming that by the time petrol hits $4/L - there's going to be enough of it around to sell to motorists!

Fair enough the demand in China and India won't drop off straight away, but it won't last forever either.

Wanna bet? China are currently using a fraction of what the US destroys per annum, but are tipped to surpas this consumption by 2020. Remembering that US consumption continues to grow - its a fair effort to catch up and overtake this level of demand.

I bet people were thinking fuel prices would always be high back in 1973 and 1980, but they dropped off again. Besides, it's still cheaper now than in 1980

These were the result of artificial shocks to supply - i.e. embargos imposed by OPEC. We're looking at a genuine equilibrium at this price - as opposed to a falsified equilibrium as a result of oil embargos.

Chalk and cheese.

Frankly i think its these attitudes - the "it'll work itself out" approach - that will be our downfall. 22 million australians with their heads buried in the sand, waiting for "someone else" to "fix" the problem.

Alternative fuels just make the problem worse.

a) Jevons paradox. The more you reduce your consumtpion of oil - the quicker someone else burns it.
b) The amount of fossil fuel energy that goes into producing alternative fuels. Currently 1 "unit" of ethanol/biodiesel consumes 6 "units" of energy to produce it

[colossus]

Originally Posted by 4.9 EF Futura

You're all assuming that by the time petrol hits $4/L - there's going to be enough of it around to sell to motorists!



Wanna bet? China are currently using a fraction of what the US destroys per annum, but are tipped to surpas this consumption by 2020. Remembering that US consumption continues to grow - its a fair effort to catch up and overtake this level of demand.



These were the result of artificial shocks to supply - i.e. embargos imposed by OPEC. We're looking at a genuine equilibrium at this price - as opposed to a falsified equilibrium as a result of oil embargos.

Chalk and cheese.

Frankly i think its these attitudes - the "it'll work itself out" approach - that will be our downfall. 22 million australians with their heads buried in the sand, waiting for "someone else" to "fix" the problem.

Alternative fuels just make the problem worse.

a) Jevons paradox. The more you reduce your consumtpion of oil - the quicker someone else burns it.
b) The amount of fossil fuel energy that goes into producing alternative fuels. Currently 1 "unit" of ethanol/biodiesel consumes 6 "units" of energy to produce it

Colossus agrees with 4.9 EF Futura - oil is a finite resource, its not a hard concept.

[vztrt]

I wouldn't dump the Falcon when fuel got over $2 a litre but I would convert to LPG.

[ThoR_]

Fuel does hurt. LPG burns fast though. So basiclly there isnt THAT much of a difference. Bikes seem to be a good way but you cant go sideways in the wet. Well ive tryed it on my XR400R and almost killed myself. I have a VC Commodore 202 Auto in mint cond as an everyday driver and im paying $80 a tank usually for about 350kms. If you nanny it you could get 450 but hey who does?

The worlds coming to and end it`s just a fact. Look at the wars. Fuel. Prices on everything. Natures destruction. Gods saying sumtin.

[ThoR_]

Originally Posted by fantz

i will still fill it at $4 a litre and beyond, until i am broke.

mind you, i am insane, so that's a contributing factor.

hahaha your are nuts
:

[ThoR_]

**** John Howard i rekon

[cArSiK]

Hypothetically speaking - In two years when petrol is , say , $2 a liter and every man and his dog has jumped on the Howard LPG bandwagon ,What effect will this mass increase in demand have on the LPG price? I can only see it going north at a fast rate. Im sticking with Petrol and will jump over to a Diesel model when and if the time comes.

[ThoR_]

well i figure at them moment everyone is jumping to LPG but why. When they do my little Howard is gonna throw LPG prices into the sky!

[4.9 EF Futura]

Originally Posted by ThoR_

well i figure at them moment everyone is jumping to LPG but why. When they do my little Howard is gonna throw LPG prices into the sky!

No - more like previous announcements regarding LPG excise will be dragged out in a few years and juxtapositioned in a shallow attempt to claim the government giveth with one hand and taketh with the other.

[ThoR_]

i agree...

[mcflux]

As fuel prices continue to rise, I'll keep on comparing the cost of a 2nd car on LPG versus the cost of continually driving the EB.

For example I was looking at an XF on gas as a 2nd car, where I'd drive the XF for 5 days a week, and the EB the other 2 days (currently it's 7 days a week in the EB).

XF purchase cost + rego + insurance came to ~$500 extra out of pocket compared to just keeping the EB (and only paying 1x rego, 1x insurance).

Next year however... ;) ;) ;) But I doubt it'd be an XF.

Not interested in a small four at this stage. Maybe as a work car one day.

The other uncertainty factor here is future costs of LPG, which I haven't looked into thoroughly.

[chief]

I live about 800m from work. I walk to and from so I use no fuel. Only on weekends if I go to a mates place do I drive.

[schmidty]

It makes no difference. I drive what i do because it meets my needs as far as work goes.

Even if petrol hit $4 per L i'll still be filling up. Cant carry 800kg of tools, plus timber and who knows what else on a bike!

I've just got to pass the cost on to the client. I'm not going to work for love!

[70caprigt3k]

NEVER!, i will fill the sprint up no matter what the cost.

[MoreHPformyXR6]

I voted $2.50 a litre but if & when it gets there I think I would have to raise my limit as I cant see myself wanting to part with the XR6. Lets face it if petrol was $2.50 to $3 a litre a XR6 or XR8 would be worth half of its current value as a trade in. Do you want to trade in a car that was less than three years old under new car warranty & still have to fork out $$$$ to step up the a Getz 2 door 1.3 litre? lol

[I6corp]

This thread is making me sad...

I voted $1.80, when this happens ill probably covert the AU to a hybred LPG/PULP.

I'll always have the modded Falcon, but i may pick up a small run around car, later on.

[matsbfxr6]

Originally Posted by cArSiK

Hypothetically speaking - In two years when petrol is , say , $2 a liter and every man and his dog has jumped on the Howard LPG bandwagon ,What effect will this mass increase in demand have on the LPG price? I can only see it going north at a fast rate. Im sticking with Petrol and will jump over to a Diesel model when and if the time comes.

And when everyone dumps petrol/LPG and goes to diesel it goes north too.

I could also say that demand for LPG goes up/demand for petrol decreases and thus the price may come down here.

Being on dual fuel you could ride the price seesaw between the types of fuel lol :

[punkin]

shame you didn't put an option in for "NEVER". Petrol prices don't really mean much to us, we enjoy our driving so we pay whatever we have to for petrol. 3 of our vehicles are petrol & the other is diesel (well that is the one we bought for my mother-in-law).

F6Tornado & Goldie were discussing putting lpg on the ranchero - I'm not too sure if I like that idea.

[Windsor220]

Can someone tell me why petrol is supposed to go to $2 a litre by christmas? What is gonna happen to make it go up? From my understanding fuel prices are mostly determined by crude oil price and that has been stable for a few months now. Prices of petrol over here in the west have actually gone down a bit over the last few weeks.

[ClevlndStemer]

the pain of fuel prices isn't too bad yet but next year will be the time i decide. lease will be up on the falcon...looking at going to a smaller car or a medium euro..such as a volvo.

[Silver Ghia]

I can't vote for any as I really dont know when. Also I won't dump the car, as I'll convert it to LPG when the petrol price gets too high.

With smaller cars, you still have to pay for the petrol or diesel fuel, but obviously not as much. Together with the changeover costs it makes the LPG conversion option quite attractive.

[pauljh74]

I was thinking about this recently - for my next car, 2nd hand about 5 years old, I was looking at a current BF Falcon, a Mazda 6, but have added the Mazda 3 SP23. So far I've owned 2 Falcons, and am looking at buying property next year, so I'll try and make the current car last about 10 more years with my EL. My XE was 17 years and 270,000kms old when I sold it, my EL is 8 years old with only 121,000 kms on it and is likely going to be in better condition at 11 years old than the XE ever was at 11 years old when I got it.

I'm not a small guy, so I like a bit of room, but I sat in the previous generation Focus at the Motorshow one year and it was sufficiently roomy (for the driver at least). I don't like the Euro trend of extra soft brake discs though (Focus, Holden Astra and the old Barina), and I like the look of the Mazdas, so the 3 looks a good bet. I would prefer the SP23 so I don't step down too far in grunt - I wouldn't want to drive anything under 2 litres - unless it was really good.

Mazda is part of the Ford family, so getting a Mazda is OK.

[El_Poochino]

I'm gonna look at restoring an old steam powered motor carrage or start buying scotch in bulk : :eclipsee_

[BPXR6T]

Don't smoke, don't drink(much), don't do drugs. Got to waste my money somewhere. If it ever gets too much I'll just ride the bike to work.

[Smoked]

Ill live on LPG until i get my Degree, then my work can pay for my fuel. Might keep the urrent ride as a weekend jobbie.

[red_hotxr6]

When i cant afford to put any in the fuel tank. I love my ford.

[Sorted]

LPG Pfffffffffffffffffffffffffffft

No room for my Subs then he he he

Adds weight, more weight more fuel used

And besides as soon as they FOOL everyone to change to LPG the LPG will mysteriously go up in price

As if the Government is just going to say here, have $2,000 to get LPG and we will never recover the outlay - here comes 80 plus cents a litre LPG

Good luck with your LPG conversion :eclipsee_

[4.9 EF Futura]

Originally Posted by DRHEMI

And besides as soon as they FOOL everyone to change to LPG the LPG will mysteriously go up in price

Behold the miracles of economics as we explain this "mystery" away!!

Figure 1: Possible current demand and supply. Note these are off the top of my head.



The blue line shows that, the higher the price - the lower the demand (people will buy less) and the higher the supply (i.e. at a higher price, people want to sell more - because its worth more $$$ to them).

Some notes around this intial graph. Both lines are very steep. That is accurate IMO - as its not a luxury item. As people will only reduce their consumption slightly as price goes up (people need to drive!)... and there's only so much that supply can be increased - its a finite resource.

Both supply and demand for combustable fuels are fairly inelastic in reaction to price.

The green lines demonstrate the equilibrium price and quantity - this is the beauty of the market - buyers and sellers come together and an equilibrium price is found - i.e. the price where the quanity of demand meets the quanitity of supply which is available at that price.

So. The government hands out LPG installation rebates. More people start buying LPG. Demand increases - at all price points, as more people need to buy it. Figure 2 - The entire demand line moves outward:



Now, ive left supply steady - in all reality there'll probably be a modest increase in supply - but its a finite resource, there is only so much you can produce/drill.

Now see what happens to the equilibrium price, as a result of the increase in demand at all price points (also note that with such steep demand and supply lines - small increases in overall demand result in large price increases - something you see in all oil, petrol, lpg etc).

Figure 3: new equilibrium price and quantity



As a direct result of increased demand, the market sees a higher price.

The government has not stipulated price increases. They havent fooled anyone. The "mysterious" price rise has no mystery about it at all - this is basic, high school level economics.

I hope people consider this economic reality when accusations are levelled towards the government when the inevitable increase in LPG price occurs.

Note: this has nothing to do with the proposed excise on LPG. Play around with these graphs and you'll see exactly what will happen when excise is introduced.

[Iphido]

If you are never going to stop you can vote $4 a litre or higher. I would say your in the die hard group that would proberly fill up no matter what and are looking forward to Mad Max playing out in real life and your currently fitting 44 gal drums to your falcon coupe and readying your leather jacket.

LPG and Natural gas are just "time savers". The fact the government is handing out $2k shows just how serious this crisis is. Governments aren't known to throw away that much money so quickly when the election isn't quite here yet.

Its not going away. There is no magic solution. LPG I estimate will buy us 5-10 years (and they will be tough years too). While still dependant on fossil reserves, the government has much better control and we have much better supply. For australia, where we already have lots of LPG outlets it will buy us time.

[Feathers]

I live at home, I don't drink, smoke, or take drugs, and I very rarely go out.
I don't have a shoe/fashion/useless crud addiction.
I'm also lucky that I'm an only child, only grandchild, and that my father and grandmother own several properties each, as well as a few more in a business together, which is all being set up to be passed to me when the time comes. So I have no real need to purchase a house of my own.

All I have left to spend money on is my car, so the price of petrol doesn't bother me.
I may grumble about it when I fill up, but really, as long as I'm enjoying driving my car it's ok.