Covid 19 -

[russellw]

Originally Posted by cs123

Russ,
do you have any stats on how "deadly" this virus is 10 months in? Obviously more deadly at the beginning, but wondering what improvements exist in the mortality rate now vs then

I've ben tracking the global CMR along with a few selected countries and while the numbers differ based on response for the individual countries, the global figure has been the main one to watch.

In April it was 6.67%, in May that had dropped to 6.15%, 4.15% in July; by August it was down to 3.33%; 3.09% at the end of September and it is currently just a fraction under 3%.

I've no idea where it should really be and the various modelling is all guesswork based on no one actually knowing what the unidentified case volumes are.

What I can say is that it will probably be less than the 3% despite some countries clearly under-reporting deaths and while I thought Australia had a pretty good handle on it with the amount of testing we've done (43% equivalence), I think our current 3.293% is too high.

Russia is 1.76% but I suspect they are under-reporting although they have tested the equivalent of 40% population and might be close to accurate if they are reporting correctly.

The USA has tested the equivalent of half their population and is sitting at 2.82% while Andorra has tested the equivalent of almost twice the population and is at 2.877%.

[russellw]

Data valid as at 23:59GMT October 3rd, 2020.

Note: As not all Australian States report at the same time, the data below is based on the previous full day reporting except for the Victorian 14 day moving averages.

8 new cases for Australia and 3 deaths so the CMR rises to 3.293% while active cases drop to 1,378. NSW & WA recorded 1 case each with the balance in Victoria.

The Victorian State 14 day moving average is now 12.86 with metro at 11.9 (13 unknown) and regional at 0.2 and no unknown cases. Victoria reported 12 new cases for the last 24 hours. The weekly total for Victoria of 74 is 30% down on the previous week and there were 3 fewer deaths with 23.

1 new case and no deaths for NZ so CMR is 1.352% and active cases drop to 41.

The UK had a slightly higher 7,070 new cases yesterday but also identified almost 5k cases that were missed ion the last week of October. We know they are now not counting their mortalities by the WHO guidelines so we are going to ignore the CMR.

Just over 54k new cases in the USA yesterday and 862 deaths sees CMR drop to 2.827% and active cases drop to 33.9% with the raw numbers rising. Note that the USA is actually minus one day due to time differences.

Other notable points:
Global cases pass 35M with the last 1M taking only 3 days again;
The USA completes 110M, India 77M, Russia 47M and Turkey 10M tests;
Europe recorded a new daily case high of 66,507 (2/10);

Angola (159); Tunisia (1,223); UAE (1,231); Lebanon (1,321); Poland (2,367); Belgium (3,175); Netherlands (3,967); Ukraine (4,661) recorded new daily highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive days.

[Tickford.]

Is this just another 'October Surprise'?

A game changing event usually occurring in the month of October before election, which can boost, or damage one candidate's chances and critically change the course of an election.

US has a history of October surprises in an election year. Leaving out the obvious October surprises from this year, here's a small list from 2016 and previous years.

https://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-19887898

[russellw]

Data valid as at 23:59 GMT October 4th, 2020.

Note: As not all Australian States report at the same time, the data below is based on the previous full day reporting except for the Victorian 14 day moving averages.

15 new cases for Australia and 1 death so the CMR rises to 3.295% while active cases drop to 1,376. NSW recorded 2 cases and SA recorded 1 with the balance in Victoria.

The Victorian State 14 day moving average is now 12.71 with metro at 11.6 (13 unknown) and regional up to 0.3 and no unknown cases. Victoria reported 9 new cases for the last 24 hours.

5 new cases and no deaths for NZ so CMR is 1.348% and active cases remain at 41.

The UK had a slightly higher 7,982 new cases yesterday but the redistribution of missed cases in September put several days over 10k new cases including a record of 11,754 on October 2nd. We know they are now not counting their mortalities by the WHO guidelines so we are going to ignore the CMR.

Just over 50k new cases in the USA yesterday and 757 deaths sees CMR drop to 2.819% and active cases drop to 33.8% with the raw numbers rising. Note that the USA is actually minus one day due to time differences.

Other notable points:
Global cases set a new daily high of 321,762 on 2nd October;
Russia is over 10k daily cases with the highest number since early May;
The USA completes 111M, India 78M and the UAE 10M tests;
Asia passes 11M cases and 200k deaths;
Europe recorded an amended daily case high of 71,293 (2/10);

Tunisia (1,286); Belgium (3,389) and the Netherlands (4,003)recorded new daily highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive days.

[HIPO]

LOL, i guess the team behind Trump, are way too smart for the haters as usual..........

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by HIPO

LOL, i guess the team behind Trump, are way too smart for the haters as usual..........

I feel for those SS agents that took him on the mini joy ride. Those vehicles are pretty much sealed to protect against gas and chemical attacks. I wonder if they drew straws, the driver looks defeated. Feel for their families too.
The smart ones left 4 years ago. My friend's partner protected Obama. He quit the day of the change over Smart move.

[CoupeKing]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

I feel for those SS agents that took him on the mini joy ride. Those vehicles are pretty much sealed to protect against gas and chemical attacks. I wonder if they drew straws, the driver looks defeated. Feel for their families too.
The smart ones left 4 years ago. My friend's partner protected Obama. He quit the day of the change over Smart move.

They'll be fine, there's an internal separation.

But he's wearing a mask so they're all good.

[DJR-351]

Originally Posted by CoupeKing

They'll be fine, there's an internal separation.

But he's wearing a mask so they're all good.

There's a privacy separation screen but only the one self contained air recirculation system, they breath the same air...

President Donald Trump to leave hospital after COVID-19 treatment

https://www.9news.com.au/world/donal...eatment_061020

US President Donald Trump has announced he will leave hospital after treatment for coronavirus.

The President tweeted moments ago, "Feeling really good. Don't be afraid of COVID. Don't let it rule your life. We have developed some really great drugs and knowledge. I feel better than I did 20 years ago."

Mr Trump said he will leave the Walter Reed Medical Centre at 6.30pm (US time).

He has been receiving COVID-19 treatment there since Friday.

The scale of the outbreak within the White House itself was still being uncovered as press secretary Kayleigh McEnany announced she tested positive for the virus Monday morning and was entering quarantine.

Mr Trump's doctors have not released an update on his condition since Sunday morning.

Earlier, White House officials said Mr Trump was anxious to be released after three nights at Walter Reed National Military Medical Center, where doctors revealed on Sunday that his blood oxygen level had dropped suddenly twice in recent days and that they gave him a steroid typically only recommended for the very sick. Still, the doctors said Mr Trump's health was improving and he could be discharged as early as Monday to continue the remainder of his treatment at the White House.

Less than one month before Election Day, Mr Trump was eager to project strength despite his illness. The still-infectious president surprised supporters who had gathered outside the hospital, riding by Sunday in a black SUV with the windows rolled up. Secret Service agents inside the vehicle could be seen in masks and other protective gear.

The move capped a weekend of contradictions that fuelled confusion about Mr Trump's health, which has imperilled the leadership of the US government and upended the final stages of the presidential campaign. While Mr Trump's physician offered a rosy prognosis on his condition, his briefings lacked basic information, including the findings of lung scans, or were quickly muddled by more serious assessments of the president's health by other officials.

In a short video released by the White House on Sunday, Mr Trump insisted he understood the gravity of the moment. But his actions moments later, by leaving the hospital and sitting inside the SUV with others, suggested otherwise.

Ms McEnany spoke briefly with reporters Sunday evening without wearing a mask, but said that no members of the White House press corps spent enough time around her to be considered close contacts.

According to the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention, the best evidence is that people with mild to moderate COVID-19 aren't contagious about 10 days after symptom onset. People with more severe disease likely are contagious no longer than 20 days after symptom onset, according to those guidelines. That means isolation — whether in the hospital or at home — is supposed to last for at least 10 days.

Joe Biden's campaign, meanwhile, said the Democratic presidential nominee again tested negative for coronavirus Sunday. The results came five days after Mr Biden spent more than 90 minutes on the debate stage with Mr Trump. Mr Biden, who has taken a far more cautious approach to in-person events — and has been mocked repeatedly for it by Mr Trump — had two negative tests on Friday.

Mr Trump's doctors sidestepped questions on Sunday about exactly when his blood oxygen dropped — episodes they neglected to mention in multiple statements the day before — or whether lung scans showed any damage.
Read more: Trump update spurs more questions than answers, again
It was the second straight day of obfuscation from a White House already suffering from a credibility crisis. And it raised more doubts about whether the doctors treating the president were sharing accurate, timely information with the American public about the severity of his condition.

Even before Mr Trump's motorcade outing on Sunday, some Secret Service agents had expressed concern about the lackadaisical attitude toward masks and social distancing inside the White House, but there isn't much they can do, according to agents and officials who spoke to The Associated Press. This close to the election, thousands of agents are engaged on protective duty so they can be subbed out quickly should someone test positive.

According to CDC guidelines, in general, transport and movement of a patient with suspected or confirmed infection of the virus that causes COVID-19 "outside of their room should be limited to medically essential purposes."
The disclosures about Mr Trump's oxygen levels and steroid treatment suggested the president is enduring more than a mild case of COVID-19.
Signs of pneumonia or other lung damage could be detected in scans before a patient feels short of breath, but the president's doctors declined to say what those scans have revealed.

Asked about Dr Conley's lack of transparency, White House aide Alyssa Farah suggested the doctors were speaking as much to the president as to the American public, "when you're treating a patient, you want to project confidence, you want to lift their spirits, and that was the intent."

Dr Sean Conley, physician to President Donald Trump, briefs reporters at Walter Reed National Military Medical Center in Bethesda, Md., Sunday, Oct. 4, 2020. Trump was admitted to the hospital after contracting the coronavirus. (AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin) (AP)
In all, nearly 7.4 million people have been infected in the United States, and few have access to the kind of around-the-clock attention and experimental treatments as Mr Trump.

Mr Trump's treatment with the steroid dexamethasone is in addition to the single dose he was given Friday of an experimental drug from Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc. that supplies antibodies to help the immune system fight the virus. Mr Trump on Friday also began a five-day course of remdesivir, a Gilead Sciences drug currently used for moderately and severely ill patients. The drugs work in different ways — the antibodies help the immune system rid the body of virus, and remdesivir curbs the virus' ability to multiply.

The steroid's use has only been proven to help in more serious cases. Among the concerns with earlier use is that steroids tamp down certain immune cells, hindering the body's own ability to fight off infection.
Mr Trump is 74 years old and clinically obese, putting him at higher risk of serious complications.

First lady Melania Trump has remained at the White House as she recovers from her own bout with the virus.

Many in the White House are also shaken and scared — nervous that they have been exposed to the virus and confronting the reality that what seemed like a bubble of safety has become a COVID-19 hot spot. It took until late Sunday for the White House to send a generic note to staffers suggesting they not come to the building if they do not feel well.
– Reported with Associated Press

[EgoFG]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

...
The smart ones left 4 years ago. My friend's partner protected Obama. He quit the day of the change over Smart move.

Interesting, I just read that SS follow the specific president they are assigned to, and stay with them even after their term ends.


Maybe I should try to find the link.

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by EgoFG

Interesting, I just read that SS follow the specific president they are assigned to, and stay with them even after their term ends.


Maybe I should try to find the link.

Well they shut up shop and a few weeks later left the US. I asked why and was given a very short answer. Obviously he can't say too much, and I also try not to ask too many questions . Outside they are just very normal people.

[HIPO]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

I feel for those SS agents that took him on the mini joy ride. Those vehicles are pretty much sealed to protect against gas and chemical attacks. I wonder if they drew straws, the driver looks defeated. Feel for their families too.
The smart ones left 4 years ago. My friend's partner protected Obama. He quit the day of the change over Smart move.

He may get a chance at guarding him again......... in GITMO.....

[Bossxr8]

Originally Posted by HIPO

He may get a chance at guarding him again......... in GITMO.....

I really do hope they prove the dodgy crap that obummer set in place before he left. Disgusting conduct.

[T3rminator]

So one person (close contact) who went to work whilst their family had tested positive has now caused 25+ cases, and has even leaked into regional Vic. WTF!?!

Is this really just happening in Vic? How is NSW containing all the spot fires they had a few weeks ago? I can't believe this is a governance thing....no one is being "locked up" in other states to prevent transmission... so what is different?

[xxx000]

Originally Posted by Bossxr8

I really do hope they prove the dodgy crap that obummer set in place before he left. Disgusting conduct.

So Trump must be respected but name calling re a black Democrat is ok?

[marty351]

^^^
Looks like twitter is rallying the troops.

Standby for incoming "fact" bombardment!

[Citroënbender]

Looks like twitter is rallying the troops.

Yes, I read the #ProudBoys hashtag is trending heavily.

Disappointed to see that Victorians are not getting much clarity on what their Dear Leader and his coterie are actually thinking/planning in terms of ongoing strictures.

[Fordman1]

Originally Posted by Citroënbender

Yes, I read the #ProudBoys hashtag is trending heavily.

Disappointed to see that Victorians are not getting much clarity on what their Dear Leader and his coterie are actually thinking/planning in terms of ongoing strictures.

Yep the Proudboys hashtag will surprise the redneck white supremacists lol

[GasoLane]

Can we now get back to the Topic and leave the presidential comments to covid related posts only please.

[PhilT2]

The latest briefing from the Presidents medical team mentions the drugs he has been given; dexamethasone and remdesivir. No mention of hydroxochloroquine. The drugs given to the president have not been formally approved for treatment of the virus.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AvbHCvg2DS4

[russellw]

Data valid as at 23:55 GMT October 5th, 2020.

Note: As not all Australian States report at the same time, the data below is based on the previous full day reporting except for the Victorian 14 day moving averages.

13 new cases for Australia and no deaths so the CMR drops to 3.293% while active cases drop to 1,363. NSW, WA and SA all recorded 1 each with the balance in Victoria.

The Victorian State 14 day moving average is now 12.57 with metro at 10.6 (13 unknown) and regional at 0.3 and no unknown cases. Victoria reported 15 new cases for the last 24 hours.

1 new case and no deaths for NZ so CMR is 1.348% and active cases drop to 40.

The UK had a much higher 12,593 new cases yesterday to set a new record for daily cases. We know they are now not counting their mortalities by the WHO guidelines so we are going to ignore the CMR.

Just under 34.5k new cases in the USA yesterday and 332 deaths sees CMR drop to 2.810% and active cases drop to 33.7% with the raw numbers rising. Note that the USA is actually minus one day due to time differences.

Other notable points:
The USA completes 112M, India 79M, Spain 13M & Bangladesh 2M tests;
Spain has a major adjustment to their case numbers but mostly timing rather than totals;
South America passes 60 deaths per 100k of population;
Europe recorded an amended daily case high of 72,420 (3/10);

Iran (3,902); the Netherlands (4,579) and the United Kingdom (12,593) recorded new daily highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive days.

[nstg8a]

With the white press secretary being positive I guess that means the press gets a break from getting a whooping every time they ask her a stupid question.

Like ‘when is the president going to condemn white supremacists’... ’

If the press asked proper questions about how or why the COVID is being dealt with they might surprise themselves and get some actual info.

[PhilT2]

I have sympathy for anyone with a teenage daughter, been there done that twice. But when you're the Conways you need to take special care about what you say in front of the kid.
Normally this would be ignored but if they are lying about the condition of the President then the usual rules don't apply.
https://crooksandliars.com/2020/10/c...-twitter-after

[cs123]

Originally Posted by PhilT2

I have sympathy for anyone with a teenage daughter, been there done that twice. But when you're the Conways you need to take special care about what you say in front of the kid.
Normally this would be ignored but if they are lying about the condition of the President then the usual rules don't apply.
https://crooksandliars.com/2020/10/c...-twitter-after

George and graveyard barbie should be ashamed of themselves. What a strange family dynamic.

[russellw]

Data valid as at 23:59 GMT October 6th, 2020.

Note: As not all Australian States report at the same time, the data below is based on the previous full day reporting except for the Victorian 14 day moving averages.

24 new cases for Australia and 1 death so the CMR climbs to 3.294% while active cases rise to 1,368. NSW recorded 11, and SA recorded 2 cases with the balance in Victoria.

The Victorian State 14 day moving average is now 11.64 with metro at 9.9 (12 unknown) and regional at 0.3 and no unknown cases. Victoria reported 6 new cases for the last 24 hours.

3 new cases and no deaths for NZ so CMR is 1.346% and active cases rise to 43.

The UK had a much higher 14,542 new cases yesterday to set a new record for daily cases. We know they are now not counting their mortalities by the WHO guidelines so we are going to ignore the CMR but even using their method they recorded 71 deaths.

Just over 42k new cases in the USA yesterday and 421 deaths sees CMR drop to 2.800% and active cases drop to 33.5% with the raw numbers falling. Note that the USA is actually minus one day due to time differences.

Other notable points:
Global cases pass 36M with the last 1M also taking 3 days;
Russia recorded their highest daily cases in almost 5 months;
It's relatively insignificant globally but Costa Rica passes 1k deaths;
Asia passes 11M cases;
The USA completes 113M, India 81M, UK 26M, Turkey 11M and Singapore 3M tests;

Angola (195), Bulgaria (436, the previous high on July 7th); Canada (2,804, the previous high on May 3rd); Iran (4,151) and the United Kingdom (14,542) recorded new daily highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive days.

[Bossxr8]

So someone from Melbourne has infected a cafe worker from Kilmore. So regional victoria now has a new case.

Dan's plan is regional victoria can only come out of restrictions when there are no cases for 14 days?

It truly is a road map to nowhere. Just takes one case to be back to square one. How will regional victoria ever get to normal when this nazi regime has basically made it impossible?

Most regional areas have not had any new cases in weeks, if they have even had any at all. They simply should not be under anything but the most minor of restrictions relating to mass gatherings, and that's it.

[cs123]

Originally Posted by Bossxr8

So someone from Melbourne has infected a cafe worker from Kilmore. So regional victoria now has a new case.

Dan's plan is regional victoria can only come out of restrictions when there are no cases for 14 days?

It truly is a road map to nowhere. Just takes one case to be back to square one. How will regional victoria ever get to normal when this nazi regime has basically made it impossible?

Most regional areas have not had any new cases in weeks, if they have even had any at all. They simply should not be under anything but the most minor of restrictions relating to mass gatherings, and that's it.

QLD have said that NSW needs 28 days of no locally acquired cases before they will re-open border... Plenty of madness to go around.

I don't think Andrews is also saying that no new cases is a hard number, it will be taken in context.

But who knows....

[Bossxr8]

Originally Posted by cs123

QLD have said that NSW needs 28 days of no locally acquired cases before they will re-open border... Plenty of madness to go around.

I don't think Andrews is also saying that no new cases is a hard number, it will be taken in context.

But who knows....

It's just not feasible.

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by Bossxr8

It's just not feasible.

Aim small miss small. Hard to blame them, no premier will want a mass of deaths on their watch after what happened in Vic. You can put in all the governance and controls, but it only takes a couple of people to flout the rules to start a wave. It won't matter where it comes from or who started it, the state being hit will be the state being blamed.

I think there is a bit of psychological games being played too. If Vic can get it down to the levels of the other states on a consistent basis, I think you'll find all states will start to ease their border restrictions. Just a guess.

[FairmontGS]

What I thought was cool today was the NSW contact tracers working their way from the sewer plants (where CV19 has been present in the water samples) back to suspect suburbs in SW Sydney and testing to find the 3 zombies who didn't know they had the plague. That's dedication

[Citroënbender]

So, if someone thought they had CV, going to the toilet in the largest residential buildings would create the most chaos?