Potential Big GFC Discussion Thread

[trippytaka]

Very true. I think a lot of people who did use their assets as leverage to borrow and spend might have realised that it's time to pay down the debt and get that equity back.

[MAD]

"That's what saving is: the bit that's left over when you don't spend all your income on consumption."

Do they include essentials in consumption? Because increased cost of living would certainly be eating in to the 'savings' then.


Victoria hasn't yet begun to cop it for essential services. Smart meters, and a desalination plant still arent up and running yet.
You watch housing and retail in Victoria suffer like they haven't seen before once the carbon tax and the above mentioned increases occur.

[GT0132]

Basically those that are concerned with being out of a job because they work in an industry that is at risk of being erradicated need to act now to better position themselves to minimise the impact of being unemployed, either by reskilling and being prepared for a career change using those new found skills, or otherwise putting money away during good times so that you can put food on the table during less fortunate times.

Originally Posted by trippytaka

There are plenty more... I don't know them all personally, but the manufacturing industry is at its lowest levels since the '60s.

Manufacturing died in this country in the late 80's. Retailing is on its way now - or so I thought until Wesfarmers released their stellar profit results yesterday.

Originally Posted by Jason[98.EL]

and yet the company I work for are expanding going from a manufacturing staff of 40 to about 60+ over the next 6 months

Yep, the place where I work (in the professional services industry) has experienced double digit turnover growth in each year since FY2007. In fact in FY2009 (the year of GFC) we had our highest year of growth since the mid 80's

Originally Posted by mr smith

Unemployment figures aren't worth squat. If I get laid off, I wont count as unemployed as a redundacy and my wife working wont even see me through the centerlink door.
There would be tens of thousands of people in this situation.

That's true. However while you have a redundancy payment you haven't used you're really not unemployed are you? You're simply having a paid holiday funded by your old employer to tie you over until you find alternative employment . I accept the point about your wife though, that shoudln't matter.

Originally Posted by trippytaka

YEah I had issues getting it a few years ago when I was retrenched because of the pay out - they didn't take into account that my debts at the time were 5 times larger than the payout.

Now that's a period of my life I never want to return to!

I don't think it's an employers responsibility to vary retrenchment payouts because some employees have higher debt than others any more than it's the governments responsibility to increase unemployment benefits to some individuals because they have a high mortgage or credit card debts. When you lose your job, have not put funds aside and don't see prospects of finding another in the short term I think the best strategy is to compile a list of all your assets, rank them from unnecessary to necessary and then work through the list from the top selling them.

[trippytaka]

Originally Posted by GT0132

Basically those that are concerned with being out of a job because they work in an industry that is at risk of being erradicated need to act now to better position themselves to minimise the impact of being unemployed, either by reskilling and being prepared for a career change using those new found skills, or otherwise putting money away during good times so that you can put food on the table during less fortunate times.




Manufacturing died in this country in the late 80's. Retailing is on its way now - or so I thought until Wesfarmers released their stellar profit results yesterday.




Yep, the place where I work (in the professional services industry) has experienced double digit turnover growth in each year since FY2007. In fact in FY2009 (the year of GFC) we had our highest year of growth since the mid 80's



That's true. However while you have a redundancy payment you haven't used you're really not unemployed are you? You're simply having a paid holiday funded by your old employer to tie you over until you find alternative employment . I accept the point about your wife though, that shoudln't matter.



I don't think it's an employers responsibility to vary retrenchment payouts because some employees have higher debt than others any more than it's the governments responsibility to increase unemployment benefits to some individuals because they have a high mortgage or credit card debts. When you lose your job, have not put funds aside and don't see prospects of finding another in the short term I think the best strategy is to compile a list of all your assets, rank them from unnecessary to necessary and then work through the list from the top selling them.

Don't worry I did. I sold off the car first, then a couple of guitars. After 9 months with no work, I was pretty dry. Almost bankrupt, but I got back... now am back in the black to the tune of a 20% deposit on an entry level inner west house in Sydney.

My comment wasn't that the government should vary the amnount they pay in unemployment benefits, it was that I wasn't allowed to get payments at all for a couple of months because of my pay out.

[trippytaka]

Oh looks like the bears are back and volatility is in the house again. 3% lost in this morning's trade.

These certainly are interesting times.

[GT0132]

Originally Posted by trippytaka

Don't worry I did. I sold off the car first, then a couple of guitars. After 9 months with no work, I was pretty dry. Almost bankrupt, but I got back... now am back in the black to the tune of a 20% deposit on an entry level inner west house in Sydney.

My comment wasn't that the government should vary the amnount they pay in unemployment benefits, it was that I wasn't allowed to get payments at all for a couple of months because of my pay out.

I would have classed the guitars as necessary and done all I could to keep them

I agree with the government on this one. If you get a payout from your old employer , unemployment benefits should not commence until its all gone. Thats purpose of the payout is to cover you until you find work

[trippytaka]

Originally Posted by GT0132

I would have classed the guitars as necessary and done all I could to keep them

I agree with the government on this one. If you get a payout from your old employer , unemployment benefits should not commence until its all gone. Thats purpose of the payout is to cover you until you find work

And fair enough, but the problem was that with rent, food and my debts the money was gone within a couple of months, and then I was screwed. I made the mistake of throwing most of it into my debts to try and get a buffer and to try and reduce the amount of liquidity that the government preceived I had... it took another month to process and prove that I was broke, at which stage the bank was knocking very loudly on the door and I was screwed.

My theory is that I have paid a lot of tax over the years, so I felt justified in getting assisted when I needed it. The number of hoops I had to jump through to get it was ridiculous... made me feel that I should have been a junky instead.

As far as the guitars go, I kept two. 1961 reissue Gibson SG and the early '80s Japanese Fender Tele. They will be passed down to my kids one day.

[CJR09]

interesting...


http://goldsilver.com/new/as-chavez-...ical-starting/

[dave289]

Originally Posted by Scott

A bank telling me that rates could go up any time soon, whilst they are busy slashing rates, suggests shennanigans to me also. Which is it??

Which is it ? you ask , that is probably the hardest thing to answer right now. I have been doing some research on interest rates both past and present, both here and in the states , and am still confused as to how it will run in the short term, meaning next year or so. I will make some presumptions on this soon , this will not be a prediction as they will be imposible to predict with the state of things how they are right now. In the meantime there is a history of interest rates in the links below , one for australia and one for the states for you guys to have a look at .

http://www.loansense.com.au/historical-rates.html

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/unit.../interest-rate


I also came across a couple of videos that may be of some interset, remember these were made about two and a half years ago , and as you know things have only declined further.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DCx-EWwh0IA

And this one made over two years ago. Have we learnt anything ?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DCx-EWwh0IA


And on a slightly lighter note , I think we may have seen it in the old thread , and was made almost three years ago , but probably makes more sense now , I guess I will be one of those leaving the room in the video.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bNmcf...eature=related

[XYGTHO]

Originally Posted by GT0132

I would have classed the guitars as necessary and done all I could to keep them

I agree with the government on this one. If you get a payout from your old employer , unemployment benefits should not commence until its all gone. Thats purpose of the payout is to cover you until you find work

This happened to my wife. We were also of the belief that you could get no help (thing that sucked is can't get the job searching help either I don't think) until the redundancy was not only gone but any savings you have. So if you busted your **** for years working and saved Xamount then no help until all thats also gone? Is this correct. I have been saving so I can go without work for a good few months but still anxious as we have our first child on the way and have some outlay in things for this.

[gtfpv]

well well . my brother works in clothing manufacturing , and is now out of work , not sacked , just on unpaid leave till further notice . he tells me not only have orders dropped off , but materials are becoming rare and hard to purchase , therefore if it was busy stock would be hard to acheive . this has come about all of a sudden . meanwhile , my company has been told to cutback spending , even at a time of record growth .
my wifes employer is booming this year > food supplier .
i am starting to see anchored long termers where i work exit the industry for the mines !!!! with earning prospects of 165k > 260k + .
i've heard of a welder just scored a sub contract work 35k per month , for 10 months .
i dont know . things are changing rapidly . everyone knows someone working in a mine now .

[dave289]

Originally Posted by gtfpv

OK , You tell me who they are ? you ? anyone you know , or just what you hear on tele?

I guess you have just answered your own question , sorry mate , could'nt help myself .

Sorry to hear about your brother though , hope he finds something soon.

[gtfpv]

Originally Posted by dave289

I guess you have just answered your own question , sorry mate , could'nt help myself .

Sorry to hear about your brother though , hope he finds something soon.

[dave289]

Originally Posted by gtfpv

I wish I had the ability to answer some of my own questions too , I would be a billionaire by now

[trippytaka]

Very good doco.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4ECi6WJpbzE

[mr smith]

Originally Posted by F6 Concorde

[I]
Most of us think of saving as putting money in bank accounts. We've been doing more of that lately, but it's not the main way we save. Historically, the main way Australians have saved is by borrowing a shed-load of money to buy a house, then paying it off over the next 25 years. Your savings are embodied in the proportion of the house that's owned by you rather than the bank - your equity in the house.

Paying of housing debt IS NOT savings. This is spin doctoring in the extreme.

[MAD]

We use our mortgage as savings. Any money on the mortgage reduces the interest, and those savings aren't taxed as interest earned in a savings account would be.

Why wouldnt you call it savings anyway? You're puttng money away in to something that you will be able to take it out of at a later date.

[mr smith]

Originally Posted by GT0132

However while you have a redundancy payment you haven't used you're really not unemployed are you? You're simply having a paid holiday funded by your old employer to tie you over until you find alternative employment . I accept the point about your wife though, that shoudln't matter.
.

No job = unemployed and should be reflected in the unemployment figures. Fudging the employment figures is another feel good report to the public.

[mr smith]

Originally Posted by MAD

We use our mortgage as savings. Any money on the mortgage reduces the interest, and those savings aren't taxed as interest earned in a savings account would be.

Why wouldnt you call it savings anyway? You're puttng money away in to something that you will be able to take it out of at a later date.

So you never intend to pay off your house?

[MAD]

When I get to retirement age, I can sell the house and realise my savings.

[mr smith]

Originally Posted by GT0132

I agree with the government on this one. If you get a payout from your old employer , unemployment benefits should not commence until its all gone. Thats purpose of the payout is to cover you until you find work

I agree with no payments untill the money has gone, but you should still be intitled for the job search facilities and listed as unemployed.

[mr smith]

Originally Posted by MAD

When I get to retirement age, I can sell the house and realise my savings.

Why not pay off the house and save as after that? Then you have a house and money.
The only way i belive to get ahead is to live in a fully paid off home and then buy the toys with cash. I can tell you not having to make payments will see your bank balance sky rocket. Big deal about the tax, playing games to get tax breaks is for the fat cats not the average worker.

[MAD]

Sorry, I meant it would be paid off.

[MAD]

What I meant by using our mortgage as savings is that say we want to install aircon. We put the money we would be saving on to the mortgage, then once we have saved enough, we take it out and buy the aircon. That way we have avoided paying any tax on any interest earned, but also reduced the amount of interest the bank has charged us. win win.

Especially these days since there are so many loans that offer free redraw, just with a minimum withdrawal. Not that it is a problem anyway.
Ours is minimum $2000 withdrawal, but say if we only need $600 for an emergency, all we would do is transfer $2000 to the general account then deposit $1400 straight back on to the loan. done.

[BA GT-HO]

Originally Posted by mr smith

Why not pay off the house and save as after that? Then you have a house and money.
The only way i belive to get ahead is to live in a fully paid off home and then buy the toys with cash. I can tell you not having to make payments will see your bank balance sky rocket. Big deal about the tax, playing games to get tax breaks is for the fat cats not the average worker.

That would work in the 'good old days' but not anymore. As MAD wrote, put the money into an offset account or on the loan itself, whatever, it is still killing interest for you and you avoid tax. It's the smart way to do it.

Playing games to get tax breaks is not just for 'fat cats' everyday workers like you and me can reap huge benefits (all legal) by being clever about tax. Why pay more than you should?? I don't understand??

[mr smith]

I agree totaly that while you have a morgage its best to put extra money (maybe bar a weeks pay in a seperate account) into the morgage untill paid off, and if you really need something then maybe redraw (I think its stupid to buy toys with this money though, unless it is paid back real quick).
I do not call this saving though, this is paying off debt with the ability to re use the debt.
I just disagree with the statement that Aussies are saving more because they are paying off more on their home loans, couldnt paying off more on your car or harvey norman account be classed the same, I dont think this could be called savings?

[z80]

Big falls on the share market in Australia today.

3.41% drop in today in the All Ords, finished at 4109.

[V8 6I]

Originally Posted by JC

How many 1/4s of negative growth does it take to make a depression? I remember years ago Keating saying it was the "recession we had to have" - so what's the difference between a recession and a depression (or is it just the words???).

A recession is when your neighbor losses his job a depression is when you loose yours.

[mik]

and it`s good to see our banks not kicking a guy while he`s down in these tuff times(sarcasm),............ if i heard it right on the radio this morning(I BELIEVE I DID) some banks are putting their interest rates up for the farmers that have their lively hoods hanging in the balance while the beef embargo is on, i hate to be crass ...............BUT WHAT A PACK OF GREEDY $%#@%@#$% !!!

[AMGC63]

Originally Posted by z80

Big falls on the share market in Australia today.

3.41% drop in today in the All Ords, finished at 4109.

I noticed you havent reported on any gains the market has made this week though have you...