Covid 19 -

[Mr_G6ET]

Originally Posted by Sprintey

... going Lord Humungous on them

is ok atm, you will get off lightly. Acceptable has changed

[Sprintey]

Yeah, I'm talking in a totally post-apocalyptic, post-government kind of way...

Be still my dogs of war

[marty351]

Anti-maskers are in the same boat as anti-vaxxers and flat-earthers. Bunch of nutcases who should be isolated and forgotten about.

[smoo]

Originally Posted by marty351

Anti-maskers are in the same boat as anti-vaxxers and flat-earthers. Bunch of nutcases who should be isolated and forgotten about.

[Citroënbender]

I vote we isolate Eve Black at Marty’s house.

[gooseneck]

You guys are gonna get it too unless you're using the WHO recommended homemade disinfectant spray and disinfect your cars interior/steering wheel/gearstick/inner door handle/outer door handle/seatbelt buckle of your car, and of our house: the front door handle/rear door handle/interior flat surfaces of your house every time that you go out and buy groceries. And make sure you're wearing gloves when doing this.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...facility-H.pdf
https://www.health.gov.au/sites/defa...r-covid-19.pdf

And also wear a mask, and glasses when outdoors, and wear gloves when packing those shelves and wash your hands after you get your groceries home.

The WHO recommended concentration is 80% isopropyl alcohol 20% water. You can get the isopropyl alcohol from sydney solvents.

Even then the 80% solution takes 30 seconds for the virus to be destroyed/killed on the surfaces. So you have to leave it soak there for 30 seconds until it evaporates. Even then I would do it again and wait another 30 seconds just to be sure.

The only mask recommended for use is the KN95 and N95 mask too as far as I'm aware. Homemade masks need to be at least 3 layers thick. https://www.insidehook.com/daily_bri...s-for-covid-19

Those 70% isoprop hand sanitizers, I don't personally trust them. Too weak and take too long to kill the virus.

The FDA also recommends an 80% solution:
https://www.fda.gov/media/136289/download

More info: https://www.fda.gov/drugs/informatio...s-and-covid-19

And yes the 80% solution WILL burn/bleach/discolor any plastic parts.

That's what I do anyway.

[Franco Cozzo]

M80 Ring Road/Keilor Park Drive

https://twitter.com/DanielAndrewsMP/...062657/photo/1

Absolute ghost town - feel like sneaking out and going for a spin through the completely dead city

There's literally more traffic on Melbourne roads at 3AM on a school night in normal times than this.

[prydey]

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

M80 Ring Road/Keilor Park Drive

https://twitter.com/DanielAndrewsMP/...062657/photo/1

Absolute ghost town - feel like sneaking out and going for a spin through the completely dead city

There's literally more traffic on Melbourne roads at 3AM on a school night in normal times than this.

Feel like Will Smith (I am legend)

[marty351]

Be warned, the copper chopper goes on the prowl a night, heard them a few times already.

[Franco Cozzo]

Originally Posted by marty351

Be warned, the copper chopper goes on the prowl a night, heard them a few times already.

Might buy an EF/EL for the run, world's worst headlights those things would make you invisible to anyone in a helicopter can't even light up the road

[arronm]

Its time for WA to split from the infected east

[gooseneck]

We're going a bit nuts aren't we.

[russellw]

Originally Posted by Tickford.

russellw, I'm sorry but your COVID-19 associated calculations, and charts are all wrong.

Please have a look at the link below. You need to consult this guy, who is (obviously) the world expert on COVID-19. His calculations and his charts are.. well, much better.

https://twitter.com/johnestevens/sta...20588998582273

I'd link the full interview, but I'll save everyone from the headache.

I stand corrected for having the temerity to suggest that factual data would be more relevant than lunatic ramblings carefully cogitated thoughts from the leader of the free world ^TM

Originally Posted by roddy1960

How do our Victorian forum members see the overall handling of the pandemic in your State , especially with Daniel Andrews and his team in mind given what's happening at the minute

I've been generally happy with the approach taken. I was concerned that we dropped out of the tighter lockdowns when it looked like the first wave was largely 'over' but then so did the other States and they haven't seen anything like the same impact. With hindsight a couple of weeks more might have been a good thing.

I also was advocating a tight lockdown when this second wave first got out of the bag in late June and sadly it now means not only have a lot of people died who may not otherwise have died but the lockdown we are having now will be for longer just to make certain. We probably could have gotten away with a 4 week Stage IV lock down from (say) the 7th July and then it is probable that a reasonable percentage of the 9,987 cases since that date wouldn't have occurred - or the associated 100 deaths either.

But as I've said before, hindsight is a wonderful thing and while we were both in favour of stronger lockdowns, I also understand the economic pressures the Government was under to try and return to 'normal' as early as it was possible.

History will write the story of how each country and even each State of ours managed throughout this pandemic and there will be examples of what not to do (Sweden, USA et al) and perhaps examples of where it was really well managed although none spring to mind immediately.

In terms of the country as a whole, I think we were too quick to believe we'd beaten it and being self congratulatory, lulled into a false sense of security by early June when we were down to single digit daily case numbers and no deaths for a 22-day period.

The signs were there though. Case numbers rose steadily after that first week in June which only had 39 cases and the next weeks ran like this:

13-20 June 119 (a 205% increase)
21-27 June 205 (+72%)
28 June - 4 July 721 (+252%)
5-11 July 1,191 (+65%)
12-18 Jul 1,888 (+59%)
19-25 July 2,507 (+33%)

.. and then another 59% increase this week before the decision was made.

I'm not saying that need necessarily have raised massive alarms but the first wave peak 7 day numbers were only around 2,500 cases in the worst week of March (22nd-28th) and they were spread around the country on that occasion whereas this time the majority were from one State. Indeed, drilling down on that March week of 2,500 cases; 18% were Victoria, 47% NSW, 16% Queensland with the balance spread around the remaining States.

I think some sectors in our community have done really poorly.

The private aged care sector has hardly covered itself in glory and while they only recorded about 10% of the cases, they also racked up ~40% of the deaths (and counting). It was already undergoing an inquiry and the terms of reference have quite rightly been expanded to include that fiasco.

We've seen too many cases from the abattoirs. Yes, the workers are in close proximity but so then are other industries and I suspect this might have something to do with the largely migrant workforces in the facilities which have been impacted.

The BLM protesters; anti-mask wearers; people deliberately flaunting the restrictions; those who have failed to stay at home once quarantined; security companies who failed to provide training or adequate equipment for their staff or even help them realise just how important the job was and everyone who has decided that they just had the flu and went to work anyway.

PS: for whoever was asking Victoria is 23% of the Australian GDP.

[arronm]

No issues in WA. Lets keep the borders closed

[prydey]

Originally Posted by arronm

No issues in WA. Lets keep the borders closed

SA could say that a week ago.

[prydey]

Originally Posted by arronm

No issues in WA.

You were saying?

[Franco Cozzo]

Originally Posted by prydey

You were saying?

1 case out of how many million people?

[prydey]

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

1 case out of how many million people?

Yes, I know. I couldn't help it after his little dig at S.A. earlier.

[arronm]

Originally Posted by prydey

Yes, I know. I couldn't help it after his little dig at S.A. earlier.

SA has a case

[Mr_G6ET]

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

1 case out of how many million people?

W.A 1.6 million versus 6.4 Vic. S.A is 1.7.

Note W.A overseas infections, we inherited a large majority of our cases.
Unfortunately for Vic, local spreading is high and the unknown is high.
W.A is OK for now as long as we can keep isolated in our (big) little bubble.

Attachment 103308

[russellw]

I was looking through the countries with zero deaths to see if anything could be gleaned but they are mostly tiny places like Anguila (3 cases, population 15K) but there are a couple worth noting:

Bhutan (103 / 177K);
Cambodia (240 / 16M)
Mongolia (293 / 3.2M)

If the figures reported are accurate then there has to be a reason why there isn't a single fatality amongst those 636 cases given that even in Australia that would be ~6 deaths and based on the global average it would be more like 24.

Someone mentioned South Korea as being worth a look and yes, they had a very early onset with high case numbers peaking at 851 on March 3rd but that was reduced to the 70-100 level by mid-March and got down to single digits by mid-April although it gradually increased to the 50-60 cases per day level where it has remained pretty much ever since. This would suggest that their early strategy was very effective but that they have either eased those restriction or people stopped complying at the same level.

It's a country with about twice our population (51M) but they have had less total cases (14,389 compared to 18,318) but also about 50% more deaths. On a population basis they have had 28 cases / 100k (71) and 0.587 (0.867) deaths per 100k. Only their CMR of 2.092% is worse compared to ours at 1.2%. The only question mark as far as case numbers is that they have tested a lot less of their population than we have - 3% compared to 10%.

[CoupeKing]

What's the fatality rate of people that work at supermarkets? I mean, they're on the front line and all.

[russellw]

We've had one supermarket outbreak that I' m aware of, LaManna Supermarket at Essendon Fields. It is apparently linked to 32 cases but no deaths that I am aware of.

[gooseneck]

Lets all just go to the winchester, have a cold pint , and wait for it all to blow over..

[russellw]

412 new cases for Australia and 11 deaths sees the CMR rise to 1.239% and active cases rise to 7,876. NSW recorded 11; SA recorded 1 with the balance in Victoria.

Here is a graph showing the climb in daily case numbers for Victoria since the first outbreak began:



No new cases and no deaths for NZ so CMR is 1.404% and active cases drop to 22.

The UK recorded 670 new cases and 89 deaths yesterday so the CMR drops to 15.116%.

Just over 48.5k new cases in the USA yesterday and 567 deaths sees CMR down to 3.267% and active cases at 46.4% with the raw numbers actually falling slightly. Note that the USA is actually minus one day due to time differences.

Other notable points:
Global deaths pass 700k with the last 100k taking 9 days (1 day longer than the previous 100k);
The USA completes 61M and Spain 7M tests;

Libya (226), Poland (680), Uzbekistan (981) and Philippines (6,352) recorded new daily highs, those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

The graph below tracks the elapsed time for each 100k deaths to be added to the total. Obviously, larger numbers of elapsed days are better.

[GO FURTHER]

Victoria is expected to record its darkest day yet, with 725 cases and 15 deaths expected to be announced.

COVID = Citizens Of Victoria Ignoring Directions

Or playing the devil's advocate... Is Covid-19 being deliberately spread?

[Citroënbender]

In the early days of HIV, there were pockets of people in some countries who felt they had nothing to lose by infecting themselves with it.

Take away meaningful life for some here and you may find a similar train of thought.

[Mr_G6ET]

Originally Posted by GO FURTHER

.... Is Covid-19 being deliberately spread?

Some people simply don't care I suggest. Although not completely 'cut and dry', the younger Australians are statistically hurting the older or not healthy ones.

Attachment 103303

Attachment 103304

[Polyal]

To be expected, even unaware younger people or on the move more I would have thought.

[blueoval]

Your dream may just come true if this is what we have to look forward to.

https://www.skynews.com.au/details/_6178243325001