Here are a couple of graphs we haven't had for awhile.
First up, the continent based CMR where the global average is now down to 2.33%. Europe (2.3%), Oceania (2.22%) and Asia (1.64%) are all below that while South America (2.84%) has passed North America (2.34%) with the worst rate.
Next is the cases per 100k adult population for some selected countries. Globally, the average is 1,295.2 / 100k while Australia is 155.7 at the lower end and the USA is worst with over 8,000 / 100k, followed by Belgium (6,545) and Switzerland (5,319).
Deaths per 100k of population shows the global average now at 28.86/100k with Australia just over 5/100k and Belgium faring worst with 193/100k ahead of Italy (174.8) and the USA (146.6).
We have seen this one recently but the global case growth chart has been heading the wrong way for awhile now:
Last time we looked at the US modelling (only 10 days ago), we were predicting 18M cases by year end and 300k deaths. I've revised both models based on a less conservative number set, despite which the current case trend is still above my worst case model in which we'll likely see 20M cases by end of year. Actually, given we are currently at 16.8M and the 7 day average growth has been ~220k cases per day and there are 19 days left that would make roughly 4.2M cases and make the total closer to 21M. I'd expect a slight slowdown in identified cases during the Xmas break so that's likely to keep it closer to 20M.
We also predicted 300k deaths in the USA by year end but that total has already been surpassed so I've again revised the model. The current trend is now about level with the new upper predictive model, which shows ~340k deaths by year end and something like half a million by mid-February.
