[russellw]

Some of the modelling makes interesting reading.

For example, most models currently have the USA hitting anywhere between 12-20M confirmed infections and 205-250k deaths by the end of October but that is such a wide range as to be almost meaningless.

For what it's worth (frankly not much), my modelling suggests that the number of cases is likely to be somewhat lower than those predictions - somewhere between 7.5-10M with the greater likelihood at the lower end of that range if the current trends hold.

My model is in agreement with the range of deaths although it is likely to be at the lower end of that spectrum (205k) given the recent improvements.

The predictions for Australia are suggesting 1,525 deaths by the end of October but my modelling only has a range of 300-500 with weighting toward the lower end. My case number modelling has an unfortunately wide range due to the Victorian spike so the prediction is anything between 24-36K cases by the end of October.