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Originally Posted by Tickford.
russellw, I'm sorry but your COVID-19 associated calculations, and charts are all wrong.
Please have a look at the link below. You need to consult this guy, who is (obviously) the world expert on COVID-19. His calculations and his charts are.. well, much better.
https://twitter.com/johnestevens/sta...20588998582273
I'd link the full interview, but I'll save everyone from the headache.  
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I stand corrected for having the temerity to suggest that factual data would be more relevant than
lunatic ramblings carefully cogitated thoughts from the leader of the free world
TM
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Originally Posted by roddy1960
How do our Victorian forum members see the overall handling of the pandemic in your State , especially with Daniel Andrews and his team in mind given what's happening at the minute
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I've been generally happy with the approach taken. I was concerned that we dropped out of the tighter lockdowns when it looked like the first wave was largely 'over' but then so did the other States and they haven't seen anything like the same impact. With hindsight a couple of weeks more might have been a good thing.
I also was advocating a tight lockdown when this second wave first got out of the bag in late June and sadly it now means not only have a lot of people died who may not otherwise have died but the lockdown we are having now will be for longer just to make certain. We probably could have gotten away with a 4 week Stage IV lock down from (say) the 7th July and then it is probable that a reasonable percentage of the 9,987 cases since that date wouldn't have occurred - or the associated 100 deaths either.
But as I've said before, hindsight is a wonderful thing and while we were both in favour of stronger lockdowns, I also understand the economic pressures the Government was under to try and return to 'normal' as early as it was possible.
History will write the story of how each country and even each State of ours managed throughout this pandemic and there will be examples of what not to do (Sweden, USA et al) and perhaps examples of where it was really well managed although none spring to mind immediately.
In terms of the country as a whole, I think we were too quick to believe we'd beaten it and being self congratulatory, lulled into a false sense of security by early June when we were down to single digit daily case numbers and no deaths for a 22-day period.
The signs were there though. Case numbers rose steadily after that first week in June which only had 39 cases and the next weeks ran like this:
13-20 June 119 (a 205% increase)
21-27 June 205 (+72%)
28 June - 4 July 721 (+252%)
5-11 July 1,191 (+65%)
12-18 Jul 1,888 (+59%)
19-25 July 2,507 (+33%)
.. and then another 59% increase this week before the decision was made.
I'm not saying that need necessarily have raised massive alarms but the first wave peak 7 day numbers were only around 2,500 cases in the worst week of March (22nd-28th) and they were spread around the country on that occasion whereas this time the majority were from one State. Indeed, drilling down on that March week of 2,500 cases; 18% were Victoria, 47% NSW, 16% Queensland with the balance spread around the remaining States.
I think some sectors in our community have done really poorly.
The private aged care sector has hardly covered itself in glory and while they only recorded about 10% of the cases, they also racked up ~40% of the deaths (and counting). It was already undergoing an inquiry and the terms of reference have quite rightly been expanded to include that fiasco.
We've seen too many cases from the abattoirs. Yes, the workers are in close proximity but so then are other industries and I suspect this might have something to do with the largely migrant workforces in the facilities which have been impacted.
The BLM protesters; anti-mask wearers; people deliberately flaunting the restrictions; those who have failed to stay at home once quarantined; security companies who failed to provide training or adequate equipment for their staff or even help them realise just how important the job was and everyone who has decided that they just had the flu and went to work anyway.
PS: for whoever was asking Victoria is 23% of the Australian GDP.