Time for some graphs:
First up are three of the countries that got hit badly early in the piece: Spain, UK and Italy.
Spain looks to be having a fairly sustained second wave although not at the same level as the first one while the UK and Italy look to be fairly steady at a much lower level than their peak.
Next are two more countries that got hit badly early in the piece but which continue to get worse: Brazil and the USA.
Next are some countries that we've been watching - these graphs are since the outbreak started and based on cases per 100k of population to show how each country has progressed through the duration:
1. Countries that have more than 20 cases / 100k - Chile, Ukraine, Brazil & Panama. Chile started slower than the other two but peaked earlier before declining steeply and largely continuing to do so while both Panama, Brazil and the Ukraine have continued to climb and probably haven't yet peaked.
2. Countries that have more than 15-20 cases / 100k - Peru, Moldova, Dominican Republic & the USA. Peru peaked back in early June but now looks to be having a second wave that is just as bad. Moldova looks to be doing much the same while neither the USA or Dominican Republic look to have actually peaked yet.
3. Countries that have more than 10-15 cases / 100k - Russia, Belarus, Guatemala, Saudi Arabia & the Honduras. Russia has been in a very steady decline since peaking in late May while Belarus had declined more steeply and even Saudi Arabia now looks to be heading the right way after a mid-June peak. Not so good news for Honduras and Guatemala although they may well have peaked about 10 days ago.
4. Countries that have more than 2-10 cases / 100k - Mexico, UK, Sweden, El Salvador, India & Czechia. While Sweden didn't peak until the end of June, the belated introduction of tough restrictions has seen a rapid decline in case numbers. The UK has been in decline since a peak in early May but it's been gradual while the rest continue to climb albeit slowly except for El Salvador and India which have ramped up quite steeply.
5. Finally those countries with less than 2 cases / 100k - Canada, Italy and Spain all of which had been trending downward since their early May peaks although Canada and Spain are showing a slight upward trend over the most recent two weeks.
We can see this data a bit better in the polynomial trend lines. Starting with Asia, this first lot are all what you'd want to see - a rising curve to a peak followed by a continuing downward line and Pakistan has seen the best reduction by a significant amount.
This next group only has Iran and Qatar showing that same shaped trend-line with Qatar showing a major drop to almost nothing. Conversely; Iraq, Indonesia and Kazakhstan continue to rise and likely haven't peaked yet while Turkey had been doing really well since their very early peak but it's started to climb again, albeit slowly.
This next group have all reached their peak and are in decline except Singapore which is clearly having a second wave. Nepal and Afghanistan are down to almost nothing while Kuwait has been pretty flat since an early June peak.
The final set of charts are for African countries and their new case numbers with only Nigeria, Ivory Coast and Sudan actually showing any improvement while the rest continue to climb, some steeply.
