[russellw]

The US CMR has been dropping but only because the rapid increase in case numbers has been pushing it down. As we already know, the cost of all those cases is a subsequent increase in deaths but the undetermined number is at what level. About all we can say with any degree of accuracy is that it is likely somewhere between 1-3% (AU is 3.25%, NZ is 1.2%) of identified cases where reasonable testing volumes are available. At that level the ~200k cases a day volume equates to 2,000 future deaths per day at the lower end of that scale - the last 10-day average has been almost 1,900/day and the last 5 days almost 2,100/day.

As an aside, in the lead-up to the NBA season in the USA all registered players were tested and 8% of the results came back positive. That may be the best indication yet as to what the real underlying community infection level is and it aligns pretty well with the US adult identified case rate of 6.3%.