Quote:
Originally Posted by T3rminator
Russell, you are a good numbers guy. Based on what you are seeing, in your opinion, is it being "controlled"?
Vic government have said they are still concerned with the numbers, but at least it is not in the thousands and growing exponentially. Not sure what to make of that.
The trend analysis I shared earlier mentioned peak period predicted between 22nd and 26th. Today is the 26th. Next week's numbers will be critical?
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I don't think it is being 'controlled' per se except perhaps in those countries that don't much like being transparent (Russia and China spring to mind).
I think a large number of countries simply don't have the infrastructure or funding to perform large scale testing - for example, the total population of all the countries that have tested less than 1% is 2.3B people and 6.8B for those where less than 10% have been tested so that leaves an awful lot of scope for under-reported cases.
For some, we will never get the full picture.
I can't see Africa ever getting close to full testing. Indeed, only 1 of the 37 countries that make up the continent has tested more than 10% and only 14 have tested more than 1%.
Likewise, only 2 of the 14 South American countries are over 10% testing; 12 of the 49 Asian countries; 6 of the 49 North American countries and even in Europe it's only 19 of the 48.
Thus we'll be left guessing what the real fatality rate from infections is simply because we'll never be able to define the actual number of infections - although we might eventually get some localised data that is accurate enough albeit based on very small numbers.