Quote:
Originally Posted by PhilT2
Even when it's passed...
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I'd very much doubt it will ever 'pass' as such - it will just reach a level where there is an x% effective vaccine (probably annual) and an x% acceptable mortality rate. As I mentioned pages ago, those 'acceptable' levels for Influenza are ~80% effective for a vaccine and ~1% for deaths in
developed countries but this is probably a bit more infectious so the acceptable death rate may end up being higher. Note that the mortality rate in less developed countries is considerably higher.
What the case mortality does have to do is drop below the current global rate of 6.7% to something like the Oceania rate of 1.39% and there may well end up being some countries that don't manage to achieve a low enough rate in which case they become higher risk travel destinations and maybe even banned ones. Or banned for those in high risk portions of the population.
There will be a world on the other side of the current pandemic but it won't be the same one.