Thread: Covid 19 -
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Old 25-04-2020, 01:46 PM   #2218
russellw
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Default Re: Covid 19 -

Two graphs - one for the countries on my list that have a peak daily new case rate below 10 cases per 100k population (Australia, Germany & Turkey) and those with a peak above 10.



Australia looks about what you'd expect with effective countermeasures to infection with a rise to a peak before a slight drop caused by the first set of restrictions which then went back up before the 2nd set of restrictions has led to the steady (if a little bumpy) fall in infection rates.

The German line isn't as successful and while the big bumps are a result of the lower weekend testing rates, their stated view of lowering restrictions from May 3rd might be a bit premature.

Turkey was a late starter with the first reported case about 10 days later than most countries but then they also waited a month before introducing restrictions only 11 days ago (12th April) and even that was only a weekend full lockdown. You can see that it did have a positive impact in the graph but it's probably a case of too little, too late.



A bit more of a mixed bag here.

Spain has had a couple of bites at restrictions, easing restrictions, tightening restrictions and you can see the spikes in the line caused by each change and at the moment it's heading in the wrong direction.

UK - despite having restrictions in place since 25th March and being in lockdown since early April, the signs aren't all that positive. Yes they are off their peak but have shown little improvement since implementing it.

Italy has made some good ground but they've been very restrictive (and enforced it) earlier than just about anywhere but their is anecdotal evidence that as the weather has warmed up, the adherence levels have dropped which might explain the recent upward trend. Either way, I suspect their planned May 3rd easing of restrictions might also be too soon.

Iran actually might be a good case study. You can see when they implemented their lockdown at the beginning of April and it's been trending in the right direction ever since. They significantly eased restrictions 5 days ago (20/4) so it will be interesting to see if the little kink at the end of the graph is a hint of worse to come.

France is another country that has had two bites at lockdown but which also isn't great at reporting timely data so it's hard to draw any real conclusions.

Cheers
Russ
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